Ovie has good shot at passing Great One
Let the countdown officially begin. Make it 258 to tie, 259 to pass.
That Alexander Ovechkin was positioned to take a run at Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goals total hasn’t been in doubt for some time. Now, with Ovechkin scoring at the highest pace in his career at age 33, it’s starting to look like he’s going to do it.
Apparently lugging around the extra weight of a Stanley Cup ring, complete with 252 diamonds, 35 rubies and a sapphire, isn’t slowing him down. With seven goals in his last three games, including back-to-back hat tricks, Ovechkin could be headed for his eighth Rocket Richard Trophy this season.
He’s got 29 goals in 32 games, on pace for 74 goals, which would be the most he has ever scored in a single season. Back in his third NHL season, when he was 23, he potted 65.
So, based on what we’re seeing, Ovechkin isn’t just gaining on Gretzky. He’s picking up steam.
He needs 130 goals to catch Jaromir Jagr for third place, and 165 to catch Gordie Howe for second. After that, there’s only Gretzky, with 894 career goals. The Mount Everest of goal scorers. Given that Gretzky passed Howe back in 1994, just as the World Wide Web was getting rolling, it’s pretty clear Ovehckin’s charge will ultimately turn into the greatest individual pursuit in NHL history.
Social media and wall-to-wall coverage of every NHL game will ensure Ovechkin will be watched more closely than any player in NHL history once he gets within 20 goals of Gretzky. After that, it will literally be stride-by-stride, shot-by-shot coverage.
At his current goal-scoring pace — .614 goals per game to this point his career — Ovechkin would pass Gretzky in 422 games.
That’s just over five seasons. He wouldn’t even be 40 years old. While most would agree it’s going to take longer because Ovechkin will inevitably begin to score less, right now that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Instead, it’s like the lid is off, and it’s not going back on.
It’s as though being part of Cup-winning team with Washington last spring has removed all doubt about Ovechkin’s hockey powers. Not only in the minds of the entire hockey world, but also in the mind of the player himself.
There have been many doubters, including this writer. For so many years, there were so many playoff failures and so many substandard performances in the Olympics. It just seemed like either his game could be stymied, or he wasn’t well-rounded enough to lead effectively, or he would stymie himself by asking too much of himself.
Ultimately, last spring proved he could indeed be part of a champion. He had 15 goals in 24 playoff games, but there were lots of quality performances from other Capitals and Ovechkin didn’t do it on his own. He was part of a special spring.
We also know, because he told us, he then spent pretty much the entire summer drinking and celebrating. He has returned to the NHL seemingly unencumbered by expectations, his or anyone else’s.
At this point, here’s what could stop him from catching Gretzky:
Declining skills and injuries
Gretzky only scored 92 more goals after he broke Howe’s record in ’94, and nine in his final campaign. Yes, even the greatest slow down, and Ovechkin will as well. But to what level?
Ovechkin has only missed 29 games in his career, none in the past two seasons, and has avoided major injuries. Continuing to do that into his late 30s or early 40s would be remarkable in and of itself. But if he can, he could play well past the age of 40. His contract Ovechkin’s current arrangement, a 13-year deal signed in 2008, has two more years after this season to run at an annual cap hit of $9.54 million (U.S.) per season. Eight players will make more this season, a number likely to increase.
How much will he want in the summer of 2021? How much term? Will the Caps be willing to meet his demands when he will turn 36 at the beginning of the following season?
Finally, with the next Winter Olympics in 2022, and with no commitment from the NHL that it will let its players participate after blocking them from going to the 2018 Games, would Ovechkin take that opportunity to head home for the KHL, with a chance to be an Olympian again? That would derail his pursuit of Gretzky. Or end it. The state of the Capitals Washington leads its division this year with only nine regulation losses and a roster mostly intact from last spring’s Cup run. They haven’t missed a beat under new head coach Todd Reirden.
They are one of the NHL’s older teams, if not the oldest. Both goalie Braden Holtby, 28, and centre Nicklas Backstrom, 30, will become unrestricted free agents after the 2019-20 season. Hard decisions could be ahead for the Caps, and Ovechkin could theoretically find himself surrounded by a weaker team as he ages.
Washington isn’t exactly knee deep in top prospects to guard against decline. Their best prospect is goalie Ilya Samsonov, 22, who is struggling in his first year in North America with the AHL’s Hershey Bears. Forward Jakub Vrana and defenceman Madison Bowey are already contributing at the NHL level this season. Defenceman Lucas Johansen, 21, is learning his trade in the AHL.
That said, the Caps have made the playoffs 10 of the past 11 seasons, and ownership and management are stable. So maybe they can avoid the fate of Los Angeles and Chicago, two recent champions that have fallen on hard times.
Even if Ovechkin eventually passes Gretzky, of course, it won’t settle the argument of the identity of the greatest scorer in NHL history. Mario Lemieux averaged .754 goals per game, but only played 915 career games. Mike Bossy averaged .762 goals per match, but only played 752 games.
Still, it will be a monumental and wildly celebrated feat if Ovechkin can catch The Great One. Based on what he’s doing now, it may not even take him that long. Damien Cox’s column normally runs on Tuesday and Saturday.