5G’S EARLY DAYS
Report says 25 carriers will launch wireless tech in part of their territory by end of year
Telecoms are preparing and talking ’bout their generation of new wireless technology,
The world is getting an early taste of fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks, but the promise of much faster internet speeds comes at a price, a Deloitte Global report says.
Based on research, including interviews with industry executives and analysts, Deloitte’s Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions 2019 report says 25 carriers will have launched 5G service in at least part of their territory by the end of the year, with 26 more to follow in 2020.
Some U.S. providers have already completed rollout of the 5G infrastructure on a limited basis focused on a few major cities and Canadian carriers are expected to do so in 2020 and 2021, said Duncan Stewart, director of research at Deloitte Canada’s Technology, Media and Telecommunications group.
Stewart puts Canada “about in the middle of the pack” in terms of the pace of its transformation to the latest technology with Bell, Telus, Rogers and other carriers running 5G pilots and preparing to spend billions of dollars to be ready for the early stages of 5G.
The professional services firm expects 20 handset vendors will offer 5G ready phones this year such as the Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 expected to appear in the second quarter.
But it also warns that component costs for the devices will be $40 to $50 (U.S.) higher than comparable 4G handsets, reflecting the challenge in part of designing complex antenna for 5G devices able to handle multiple radio wave frequencies.
The report, now in its 18th year, says the newest technology achieves ultralow network latency or lag time during transmission of data packets between the network and device. But it also says there will be a lengthy generational migration between the technologies, as has been the case with the lead up to 3G and 4G networks.
As such, it says while 5G widearea wireless networks will start to arrive in scale in 2019, they will remain a niche technology accounting for less than one in seven mobile connections through 2025.
“Generally, it takes a full decade to transition,” Stewart said.
Wide-scale adoption of 5G de- vices will take time, “but we believe 2019 will be the starting point for sweeping change for the wireless industry,” added Deloitte Global telecom sector leader Craig Wigginton in a press release.
“5G can provide hundredfold increases in traffic capacity and network efficiency over 4G, and this has transformative potential on the future of connectivity worldwide.”
Deloitte, in the 103-page report that will be presented in Toronto in early January, takes stock of smart speakers, an industry segment it says will be worth $7 billion in 2019, selling 164 million units at an average price of $43 each. That compares to a global market value of $500 billion for smartphones this year.
In 2018, about 98 million smart speakers will be sold, an annual jump of 63 per cent. By the end of next year, Deloitte says there will be 250 million installed units in the United States.
Deloitte notes the voice-activated, web-connected speakers have been largely an Englishlanguage phenomenon, but speakers using other languages could push demand into the many billions of units.
Stewart said speaker prices have been coming down and will continue to do so as tech companies such as Google and Apple compete with speaker makers including Bose and Sonos. “You’re paying for the speaker and getting the intelligence free,” he said.
The report also marks China’s rise in semiconductor chipmaking, along with the growth of markets for 3D printers, quantum supercomputers and cloud-based artificial intelligence.
Deloitte Global sees a “democratization” of AI in 2019, predicting that, of companies that adopt the technology, 70 per cent will do so via cloud-based services. Stewart said that opens up access to the large data sets and specialized infrastructure needed to support AI and extends the potential of the technology beyond early adopters.
The Deloitte report also notes the abiding popularity of radio, predicting that in the U.S. 90 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds will listen to radio at least weekly in 2019. It says radio listening has kept steady even as TV viewership by that same age group declines.
On the sports front, the report offers updated data showing that 40 per cent of U.S. men who watch sports on TV will bet on the games at least weekly in 2019. It says 60 per cent of men aged 18 to 34 who watch sports bet on it.
The report says new e-sports franchise leagues will expand into major U.S. cities in 2019, following the model of conventional professional sports. Deloitte expects worldwide revenues from e-sports, a form of competition using video games, will hit $1 billion next year for a 35 per cent annual jump, driven by advertising, broadcast rights fees and league expansion.