Yankees can afford to gamble on Tulo
The New York Yankees signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki — pending a physical, according to ESPN — because they can.
Tulowitzki will not start for the Yankees on opening day. They have a healthy Gleyber Torres, all-star Didi Gregorius recovering from Tommy John surgery and expected to return around mid-season, and they are front-runners for prized free-agent Manny Machado. Tulo has not played since July 28, 2017.
So why did the Yankees sign him? It’s like playing roulette with a short stack and a favourite number. You bet your number, then look across and there sits a player with a mountain of chips. He has his own numbers, but he has so many chips he can cover himself without blinking. As the wheel and ball spin, he places chips all over, including some numbers he doesn’t really care about. Only one number will hit, but he knows his chances are better by covering all the bases.
It says here that the Yankees did not sign Tulowitzki to be their opening day shortstop. As dedicated to his rehab as Troy has been and remains, he is 34 years old and by opening day he will not have been on a major-league field in 608 days. Health is one thing. Timing, reps and game shape is another.
Blue Jays fans seem to be wringing hands and gnashing teeth as if the Yankees have hornswoggled the Jays. But when they chose to release the five-time all-star at the winter meetings in Las Vegas, it was the best thing for both sides.
The Jays owe Tulowitzki $20 million (all dollars U.S.) in 2019, $14 million in 2020 and a $4million buyout in 2021. Any team that signed him was on the hook for just the MLB minimum of $555,000 this year. He will become a free agent again after the season and the minimum will again be his salary. The Yankees signed him right now because they are able to, not because they need him.
Jays GM Ross Atkins had closed the book when he told the media in early December that Tulo is not a role player, but at the same time was never going to be able to start for the Jays in 2019. Atkins did not consider having Tulo around in rehab mode at training camp. It would have been counter- productive to the youth movement they’ve committed to.
The reports on Tulo’s comeback efforts have been Pollyanna-ish positive. He had been working out at Long Beach State, his alma mater, and had an open workout in December, which many attended. In hindsight, there are clearly more clubs that agree with the Atkins assessment than there are with extra chips to throw on the table randomly. The Yankees are one of those few that can afford the gamble.
Any team could have signed him for the minimum and the Yankees were not his first choice, affection for Derek Jeter or not. Tulowitzki is a West Coast guy. He prefers Arizona as a spring home. He grew up in Northern California and lives in Las Vegas. He seemed to be pushing for one of the Bay Area teams, the A’s or the Giants, with other spring Cactus League options close behind. Instead, he’ll be back in Florida for spring training with the Yankees as part of a crowd- ed infield mix, not ready for opening day. There wasn’t much faith in an immediate bounceback. It was a Yankee gamble.
Tulo is an intense leader, but he has to be a participant, like that guy on the horse in the Charge of the Light Brigade. Tulo’s body of work is borderline hall of fame worthy. After 2011, with the Rockies, he had seemed to be an immortal lock for Cooperstown. From 2009 to 2011, he hit .304 for Colorado with a .951 OPS and 19.4 WAR, averaging 30 homers and 97 RBIs. That was then.
In his latest three-year stretch with the Jays, he hit 252 with a .732 OPS and 3.4 WAR, averaging 10 homers and 36 RBIs. This is now.
In seven seasons since his huge three-year stretch with the Rockies, Tulowitzki has averaged just 84 games per season. He had left groin surgery in 2012, a fractured rib in 2013, left hip surgery in 2014, a cracked shoulder blade with the Jays in 2015, a quad strain in 2016, a hamstring strain and torn ligaments in his left ankle in 2017, and surgery for bone spurs on both heels in 2018.
Tulowitzki believes he’s not finished at age 34. Knowing his work ethic and desire to return to his previous self, I wouldn’t bet against him. But it won’t be with the Yankees, a team that won 100 games and lives for the present.
The Yankees are giving him a platform and an opportunity, so this is a match that fits his 2019 needs. If there is lightning in that bottle, the Yanks could benefit, but the odds are long and it’s more about Tulo’s future than the Yankees’ present.
How about this as a scenario? Tulo gets his groove back this summer and becomes a free agent. Since the Jays are the ones guaranteeing him $14 million, and any money he is earns elsewhere will be subtracted from that commitment, the Jays are also the only team that can add to his earnings. If Tulo looks like he can help in the majors, give him a couple million more in 2020 and allow him to earn the extra money by lending skill, experience and leadership to a young Toronto team.
In any case, there is no reason why Tulowitzki as a Yankee should make Toronto fans angry.
The Jays inherited his contract from the Rockies and made it to the AL Championship Series in 2015 and 2016. They’ve already earned equal return and more.