History offers reasons for hope
The Blue Jays confirmed months ago that they are entering a major roster rebuild. Their sad 73-89 record in 2018 featured underachieving pitchers, millions of dollars in time lost to injury, a lack of timely hitting and shoddy defence. This horsehide mess conspired to end a John Gibbons era that was highlighted by deep playoff runs to the AL championship series in 2015 and 2016.
The Jays suffered the largest loss in season-to-season attendance of all 30 major-league teams. The time had come to close the book and write a new one.
Most of the high-priced veterans are gone, replaced by younger, unproven options, while the Jays await the cavalry charge from the farm system. This is the path the new regime had been expecting to follow when they arrived, but the elbow-to-elbow Rogers Centre attendance and huge TV audiences delayed the decision.
Club president Mark Shapiro insists the goal is for the Jays to become a contender again in two to three years, at least by the 2021 season. But is that timeline realistic or, as many fans pessimistically believe, are the Jays entering a “winter is coming” phase of non-competition?
A key is to learn from history. We studied recent results from all 30 big-league franchises to see if Shapiro has legitimate reasons for optimism. The data we gathered involved the last time each franchise stumbled, winning 73 or fewer games and, subsequently, how many years it took to be competitive again.
The definition of “competitive,” for our purposes, is finishing at least 10 games above .500, winning 86 games or more. In one unique case, it’s making the playoffs as the Twins did in 2017 with 85 victories.
We will look at this century, the years 2001-18. The Yankees, Cardinals and Angels are the three most consistent teams, recording more than 73 wins each season. That leaves 27 franchises.
Nine teams took just one year to return to contention after losing 89 or more games. The Twins added 26 wins in 2017. Three teams had 24-win improvements: the Indians in 2013; the Cubs in 2015; and the Diamondbacks in 2017, The 2018 Braves were plus-18; the 2006 Dodgers were plus-17; the 2014 Mariners and 2015 Astros were plus-16 in 2014; and the Brewers were plus-13 in 2017. Four of those one-year turnaround teams made the playoffs.
Six of the nine quick-fix teams replaced their manager the year they bounced back — the Indians (Terry Francona), the Cubs (Joe Maddon), the D’backs (Torey Lovullo), the Dodgers (Grady Little), the M’s (Lloyd McClendon) and the Astros (A.J. Hinch). The Jays will enter 2019 under first-year skipper Charlie Montoyo.
Four teams — the Jays, Orioles, Royals and Rangers — head into this season having won 73 or fewer games a year ago, forcing them into a probable rebuild. They have a chance to join the nine oneseason bounceback teams listed above.
That foursome should seem familiar. The Jays played the O’s in the 2016 wild-card game, faced the Royals in the 2015 ALCS and beat the Rangers in both the 2015 and 2016 division series. Now, all four are in the rebuilding boat. It’s clearly tough in this day and age to sustain winning and contending.
Six teams since 2000 took two years to return to contention after 89 or more losses. The Nationals added 29 wins from 2010-12; the A’s were plus-28 from 2016-18; the Pirates, plus-22 from 2011-13; the Red Sox, plus-22 from 2014-16; the Rays, plus-22 from 2016-18, and the Rockies, plus-19 from 2015-17.
Four current teams that won 73 or fewer games in 2017 have a chance to join this group — the Giants, Mets and Tigers.
Five franchises are stuck on current rebuilds of three or more seasons. The Marlins and Padres have not contended for seven years since losing 90 and 91 games, respectively, in 2011. The White Sox have a streak of five futile years back to 2014 and the Reds are in a threeyear stretch (2016-18) of building without luck.
Amazingly, of the 27 franchises in the study that were forced to rebuild after losing 89-plus games, nine of them (33%) finished 10 games or more above .500 in one season, six (22%) did it in two years and the jury is still out on the other 12. Only five of 27 teams have taken three seasons or more to bounce back.
There is a familiar blueprint that Shapiro and Jays GM Ross Atkins can look to for what they wish to accomplish. The 2013 Indians bounced back from a 68-94 record in 2012 under manager Manny Acta, going 92-70 in Francona’s Cleveland debut, before losing to the Rays in the wild-card game.
Offensively, the Indians in 2013 featured four primary, repeat position players. They brought in veterans Nick Swisher (1B) and Jason Giambi (DH) to provide experienced leadership. They traded for catcher Yan Gomes from the Jays in a three-way deal with manager John Farrell headed to Boston. But the key to the turnaround was the improved pitching.
Between 2012 and 2013, the Indians’ average age dropped a half-year to 27.4 years-old. The team ERA dropped from 4.78 to 3.82. The WHIP and strikeouts-per-walk ratio were significantly better. Cleveland added free agent Scott Kazmir and emerging right-hander Corey Kluber to the rotation and the bullpen was younger and harder throwing, with Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw in setup roles.
In fact, many of the other one-year bounceback teams, like the 2015 Cubs, the ’17 D’backs and the ’18 Braves, reflected the same improvements in the same pitching categories. That might explain why Atkins has focused on adding power arms and veteran starters since the end of the season. It’s all about pitching.
Blue Jays spring training will be fascinating. Montoyo brings different ideas about defence, rotation and hitting from his days with the Rays. There will be a few opening day relievers with the Jays that nobody saw coming while the infield and outfield are in flux with the shadow of Vlad Guerrero Jr. looming and first-baseman Justin Smoak the only lock.
As for the original premise of this column, whether the Jays will contend sooner rather than later as Shapiro predicted: Will the revival be in one season, or will it be two or three? I can now see clearly with 2020 vision.