And then there were four
No shortage of storylines in semifinal matchups
There were no surprises in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. The top four seeds advanced, the top four offences, too.
The quarterback matchups in the conference championships offer a nice symmetry, with a young star facing a soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer in both games: Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes versus New England’s Tom Brady in the AFC; the Rams’ Jared Goff versus New Orleans’ Drew Brees in the NFC.
And there are lots of interesting subplots in this season’s NFL championship round ...
PATRIOTS AT CHIEFS
Brady on the road is different
from Brady at home: This year’s AFC title runs through Kansas City, not Foxborough. Brady is 28-10 as a playoff quarterback, the greatest record ever. But he’s not used to being on the road in January. He has a 3-4 record on the road in the playoffs, and believe it or not, he hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006.
Brady is in his eighth consecutive AFC championship game. During that stretch, he’s played a title game on the road only twice, losing to the Denver Broncos in the 2013 and 2016 seasons.
On the road, Brady is almost human. In home playoff games, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is an incredible 46-to-18. In those seven road playoff games, it’s 8-to-8. In this matchup, Brady’s challenge is trying to minimize the Chiefs’ pass rush trio of Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Chris Jones.
New England’s running backs
need to step up: One of the stories of the Patriots’ win over the Chargers was their success on the ground, led by rookie running back Sony Michel’s 100yard game and three touchdowns. But equally important was their running backs’ role in the passing game, as Brady targeted them on 19-of-44 attempts. James White caught 15 passes, tying a playoff record.
That will matter again against the Chiefs, who gave up a league-high six passing touchdowns to running backs this season and are vulnerable at the linebacker position.
“You can’t get one-dimensional in these types of games,” Brady said of the team’s balance after the win over the Chargers. “There’s very little margin of error and you’re going to have to be good in all phases. Running it, throwing it, kicking it, playing defence. Everything. We’ll have to do it again.”
Patrick Mahomes has been great, and his supporting cast is
getting better: Mahomes followed his 50-touchdown season with a great performance against the Indianapolis Colts, completing 27-of-41 passes for 278 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass, but he did everything else, including running for a score.
Mahomes has the look of a quarterback destined to win multiple Super Bowl rings. He’s a gunslinger in the mold of Brett Favre, he’s a great running quarterback in the mold of Russell Wilson, and he has the smarts of Drew Brees. And in this game, Mahomes is at home, where he ended his team’s sixgame home playoff losing streak that dated back to 1994.
The Chiefs’ offence also has gotten a boost from the return from injury of wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who caught six passes for 62 yards against the Colts, and the emergence of running back Damien Williams, who rushed for 129 yards on 25 carries.
RAMS AT SAINTS
It all starts up front — especially
for L.A.: Saints coach Sean Payton doesn’t get enough credit for regularly putting together great offensive lines, and they are loaded again this year, with Pro Bowlers Max Unger and Terron Armstead and Pro Bowl alternate guards Larry Warford and Andrus Peat.
But the Rams have also been great up front this season, and the blocking of their offensive line was one of the keys to their 30-22 win over Dallas on Saturday. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth admitted after the victory that the line didn’t perform well in the playoffs last year.
“I thought last year we didn’t execute,” Whitworth said. “It was probably our worst game we played all season from the execution standpoint. This year that was in Chicago. I think in some ways it’s benefited us to get that game out of the way.”
L.A.’s line is talented. Whitworth and guard Rodger Saffold were first alternates to the Pro Bowl. Rob Havenstein is one of the better, higher-paid right tackles. John Sullivan is smart and solid at centre.
That group paved the way for a stellar game from running back C.J. Anderson, who might have been the best story of the divisional round. He rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries, allowing the Rams to ease back Todd Gurley in his return from a knee injury. Gurley still chipped in with 115 yards on 16 carries.
Drew Brees is really hard to beat at home: The soon-to-be 40year-old quarterback is 6-0 at home in the playoffs for New Orleans, having thrown 14 touchdowns to two interceptions and never posted a passer rating below 96.2. That’s why it wasn’t surprising to see Brees rally the Saints after their slow start versus Philadelphia.
Rams coach Sean McVay says his team has learned a lot since that November loss in New Orleans, but no matter what adjustments they make, beating Brees in the Superdome is no easy task.
The Eli Apple trade will have an
impact: The midseason trade for the struggling former firstround cornerback of the Giants has flown under the radar a bit, but it has had a big impact on the Saints’ pass coverage. Apple’s ability to play man coverage has allowed the New Orleans defence to play less zone, and that will matter against the Rams.
Down the stretch, most teams have tried to double cover one of the Rams’ top two receivers — either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods — and also commit an extra defender to stopping running back Todd Gurley. New Orleans has a true shutdown corner in second-year pro Marshon Lattimore, who was one of the stars of Sunday’s win for his shadow coverage of Alshon Jeffery.
The loss of Cooper Kupp to a knee injury looms large for the Rams in this one, as they don’t have a third wide receiver to truly test the defence.