Why Murray may swing over to NFL
It made sense that Kyler Murray announced the decision himself.
In the two weeks since his Oklahoma Sooners were eliminated from the College Football Playoff, the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback let the tension and uncertainty build. Would he choose a career as an outfielder with the Oakland Athletics, and the $4.67 million (U.S.) the club offered after drafting him ninth overall last June? Or would he refund the MLB club’s money and gamble on making more in April’s NFL draft?
Either way, he had leverage and a willingness to use it. The NFL threat could raise the price on the A’s, and baseball’s presence could prompt NFL teams to take the 21-year-old seriously, lest the league lose a top prospect at its marquee position.
So instead of outsourcing the announcement of his decision to a publicist, Murray acted on his own, breaking the news on his Twitter account.
“I have declared for the NFL draft,” he tweeted on Monday.
Six months ago, the A’s were confident their hefty signing bonus had secured Murray’s services. But then came his blockbuster season as a dualthreat quarterback at Oklahoma, where he generated 54 total touchdowns, and overtook early favourite Tua Tagovailoa for the Heisman.
Murray’s performance didn’t just power Oklahoma to a national championship semifinal. It propelled the A’s and MLB into a showdown against both the country’s most powerful sports league and a U.S. sports culture that prioritizes the gridiron, and where football rarely loses bidding wars for talent. If Randy Moss had grown up in Jamaica, would he have become a long-levered sprint champion in the Usain Bolt mold? Possibly. But he’s from the U.S., where college track is a secondary sport and football teams pay a premium for speed.
And would Yoenis Cespedes have developed into a major leaguer if he were raised in Texas? Maybe. But he grew up in Cuba, where the government runs elite sport, and baseball coaches didn’t compete with football for Cespedes’ attention and energy.
Two-sport high school star Anthony Alford eventually chose baseball, but the Jays outfielder played college football because baseball didn’t offer full scholarships.
“Someone who’s in my shoes, their parents are going to push them to play football or basketball because it’s a full ride,” Alford told the Star in September. “If I had to depend on baseball to go to college, there’s no way I would have made it.”
In Murray’s case, baseball appeared to flip that script. Oakland’s $4.67-million bonus dwarfed the value of a football scholarship to Oklahoma, where Murray had committed to one last football season. And unlike NFL deals, MLB contracts are guaranteed.
And even Murray’s outlandish football stats initially favoured the A’s.
In 2017, Murray played understudy to Baker Mayfield, who passed for 4,627 yards on 11.5 yards per attempt, and threw 43 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Mayfield won the Heisman in December, and went first in the 2018 NFL draft.
This season, Murray essentially equalled Mayfield’s output, averaging 11.6 yards per pass, totalling 4,361 yards and 42 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He also added 1,001 rushing yards on the way to the Heisman.
But the A’s still owned Murray’s pro sports rights, and the football standout was positioned to help solve MLB’s star power problem.
While Mike Trout dominates MLB competition, he’s as recognizable to sports fans as NBA journeyman Kenneth Faried, according to a Washington Post story ranking athletes by Q-rating. When questioned about Trout’s low visibility, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred blamed Trout for failing to self-promote.
“Player marketing requires one thing for sure — the player,” Manfred told reporters in July. “You cannot market a player passively.”
The sport’s infrastructure is the more likely culprit.
Every year, NCAA basketball and football create new cohorts of star players. But baseball lacks a similar system of producing stars at lower levels, so even elite performers like Trout enter the league with little profile outside the local fans who have followed them through the minors.
Drafting Murray gave the A’s and MLB a chance to capitalize on NCAA football’s marketing apparatus, and sign the rare player who starts his pro career with a built-in following.
Factor in the guaranteed money, and even hall of fame cornerback and long-time outfielder Deion Sanders found Murray’s decision simple.
“If I was in his shoes I’m picking up the baseball bat and not looking back,” Sanders told ESPN on Monday.
But Oakland’s $4.67-million bonus couldn’t compete with the prospect of even more cash from the NFL and, by last week, the team sensed it. On Sunday, the A’s and the league reportedly sent representatives to make a last-ditch pitch to Murray. Oakland also reportedly offered to scrap the standard minor-league deal that draft picks receive in favour of a major-league contract, enabling the club to sign him for more than their previous offer. According to reports, Murray is seeking $15 million to commit to baseball.
But the quarterback contracts bookending the first round of the 2018 NFL draft hint that choosing football could pay off for Murray.
No. 1 pick Mayfield signed a four-year, $32.7-million deal with Cleveland that includes a $21.85-million signing bonus. Meanwhile, 32nd selection Lamar Jackson went to the Ravens for $9.47 million, including a bonus of $4.97 million.
As a projected mid-firstround pick, Murray should command less than Mayfield did but markedly more than Jackson snagged. And he could play his way to a free agency windfall after four healthy and productive seasons, where he’d need six solid seasons of MLB service time before cashing in on baseball’s free-agent market.
Of course, nothing besides Oakland’s signing bonus is guaranteed so far. Negotiations with Oakland remained open, and Murray has until Thursday afternoon to withdraw his name from the NFL draft.
He could still opt for baseball’s relative physical safety. Bo Jackson juggled both sports and emerged with an artificial hip. Alford maintains the NFL’s concussion crisis helped sway him to focus on baseball.
Murray is aware of football’s dangers. But he’s also cognizant of the leverage his twosport stardom gives him, and hopes to turn it into the biggest possible payday.