Subway deal could still go off the rails

“Torontonians won’t stand for this and Doug Ford will learn a serious lesson when Torontonians tell him he can’t do this.” GORD PERKS COUNCILLOR, WARD 4, PARKDALE—HIGH PARK

“The signing of the terms of reference between the province of Ontario and the city of Toronto signals a shared interest to improve subway service, build more transit projects, to expand, and integrate the regional network and get people moving,” Yurek said.

That means a push for more integrated fares and services between the TTC, GO Transit and regional transit systems in the 905 region.

“We will make every decision with … taxpayers and transit riders top of mind,” Yurek said.

Although the terms of reference merely set the stage for discussions expected to last months, Yurek reiterated his intention to introduce legislation on the upload before the legislature rises for the summer in June. Under the nine-page accord, Queen’s Park and the city will assess the value of the subway system, which carries 289 million riders annually, and the price tag for deferred maintenance.

Sources told the Star that the two sides are close to agreeing that the subway is worth between $8 billion and $9 billion, with about $5.6 billion required to maintain and upgrade existing equipment such as signals, tunnels and track.

That suggests the city would have a one-time net gain on its bottom line of between $2.4 billion and $3.4 billion.

But according to a report published by the TTC last month, the subway network and stations will require roughly $22 billion in capital investment over the next 15 years, a figure that doesn’t include the cost of building the much-anticipated downtown relief line or other expansion projects. More than $16 billion is unfunded.

The required work, which the TTC says is necessary to keep current levels of service and meet future demand, includes capacity improvements on lines 1 and 2, installing the automatic train control signalling system, buying new trains, and expanding Bloor-Yonge station. The terms of reference make clear that options could fall short of a complete transfer of subway assets to the province. One model would have Ontario assume ownership of new transit expansion projects only.

Another would see the province responsible for delivering new lines with no assets changing hands.

In December, Toronto council voted overwhelmingly to reaffirm the subway should remain with the city.

But at the same meeting, councillors also consented to enter talks with the province on terms of reference for discussions about the upload. Many councillors said they had little choice but to negotiate with Ontario given legal advice the city has no legislative authority to prevent Queen’s Park from taking over the rail network.

“Discussions between city staff and the province will continue now guided by the approved terms of reference and I expect a full report to council at the appropriate time,” Mayor John Tory said Tuesday.

They also state the province and city will consult the public on the proposal, which council had also set out as a condition for talks.

Under the framework, there would be more private-public partnerships to build infrastructure like the Eglinton Crosstown LRT, slated to open in 2021.

However, there remains potential for the deal to go off the rails.

Although city council appears to have few legislative options to fight the upload, Councillor Gord Perks (Ward 4, Parkdale— High Park) said Ford’s opponents at city hall “can dig in our heels and make this impossible for him.”

“Torontonians won’t stand for this and Doug Ford will learn a serious lesson when Torontonians tell him he can’t do this. He’s already had to back off on a number of policy initiatives because of public reaction.

This is going to be one of them,” Perks said. Josh Matlow, the lone city councillor who voted against entering into talks with the province, charged the Ford government is set on taking over the subway system to sell off land and air rights along the lines under a strategy of using private development at station sites to fund transit.

“I think we’re being suckered,” Matlow said.

But proponents argue the province, which can borrow more money and run a deficit, will be better positioned to build and repair the subway network.