No winners in new arms race

Mark Aug. 2, 2019, in your calendar.

That’s the day the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, one of the most consequential arms control agreements ever signed, is set to expire.

The countdown to its demise began earlier this month when, after months of baiting each other, the United States and Russia both announced they would abandon the treaty.

That mustn’t be allowed to happen. Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin must end the brinkmanship that brought them to this precipice and open up talks to resolve their differences.

More than a single treaty is at stake. The death of the INF could mark the beginning of the end to decades of arms control diplomacy that resulted in more than a dozen agreements that have, so far, prevented a nuclear Armageddon.

In recent years, worries about nuclear weapons have focused on other countries developing nukes, rogue states like North Korea, or even terrorists getting hold of a bomb. But the U.S. and Russia, the original nuclear powers, still control 90 per cent of all these weapons. If they give up on arms control, who knows where that might end?

The INF is a key part of those efforts to pull back from the brink. Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, it eliminated almost 2,700 nuclear-capable missiles. And it banned both nations from stationing short- and intermediate-range land-based missiles (those with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres) in Europe. It was a big step in ending the Cold War.

So why are we standing on this ledge? The short answer is that Russia has been violating the treaty for years. It’s been stockpiling Novator 9M729 cruise missiles, which are banned by the treaty, since 2017.

That’s an unacceptable breach of the agreement, but it should lead to negotiations, sanctions and political pressure — not pulling out of the treaty entirely.

The fact is, the world will be a more dangerous place without the INF agreement. Indeed, the threatened demise of the pact was one of the factors that led experts with the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who evaluate the nuclear threat to the planet, to declare that the situation now is “as worrisome as the most dangerous times of the Cold War.”

The INF’s planned expiry raises other disturbing possibilities. Not least is the concern that other arms-control treaties — which other nuclear powers could be brought into — will collapse in its wake.

In fact, experts believe the next to go will be the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which reduces the nuclear warheads deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles and other strategic systems.

That agreement is due to expire in 2021. And if the current bellicose climate between Washington and Moscow persists, it’s doubtful either side will be interested in renewal.

And, of course, there are well-grounded fears that the demise of the INF will lead to another expensive and dangerous arms race. In fact, it’s already happening.

Days after Trump announced the U.S. will pull out of the treaty, Russia retaliated by announcing plans to develop new land-based launch systems for its cruise missiles, as well as longer-range “hypersonic” missiles that travel at five times the speed of sound.

At the same time, the U.S is working on a new intermediaterange missile that could be deployed in Europe and, most frighteningly, a so-called “low-yield” — i.e. less devastating — nuclear weapon. Those types of weapons could be especially dangerous because politicians might consider it more politically acceptable to use them.

Reviving the INF pact will require skilful diplomacy and commitment.

But that is surely not a bigger challenge for Putin and Trump than it was for Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon when they signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 1972, or for Reagan and Gorbachev when they agreed on the INF itself.

For now, Putin and Trump are too busy posturing for their home audiences to see the folly of allowing the INF to expire.

They have until August to realize the obvious: There can be no winners in a new nuclear arms race.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are too busy posturing to see the folly of allowing the INF to expire