How long will Blue Jays fans have to wait to see Guerrero in majors?

It might be the question asked most often this spring: When will the Blue Jays call up Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

The 19-year-old Guerrero is baseball’s top prospect, ranked first on almost all of the top-100 lists that come out this time of the year. The third baseman hit .381 a season ago across four levels of the minors and .351 in the Arizona Fall League. The consensus is that he is ready for the majors.

Except it’s unlikely he will be with the Jays when they open the regular season against Detroit on March 28. The Jays might be as excited as their fans by Guerrero’s arrival, but the business will almost certainly come first.

Why not just bring him up now?

That could happen. There has been mild talk at the outset of spring training that the Jays may just open the season with Guerrero on the major-league roster and get on with it. But waiting a few weeks will ensure the Jays will have seven years of contract control rather than six.

Baseball’s CBA allows teams to tailor the arrival of special players so they can gain maximum service from them before they hit free agency. Players must put in six full seasons — at least 172 days of major-league service time annually — before they can test the market. If a player accrues 171 days or less, he is not credited for a full year.

The 2019 major-league season is scheduled to run 186 days. So if the Jays keep Guerrero in the minors for the first 15 days of the season, he won’t be able to accumulate enough days for a full year.

The belief is that the earliest he will be called up is April 12, during a home series against Tampa Bay.

What is a Super Two, and could it be a factor?

It’s probably already been a factor. Super Two is a designation that opens the door for a select group of players to achieve arbitration eligibility a year earlier than most.

The majority of players must wait three years before they are eligible. But those who are among the top 22 per cent in service time among the group with two to three years of service can qualify a year earlier, ending up with four years in which they can go to arbitration instead of three.

Former Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson reached Super 2 status in 2015. He lost his arbitration case that year and signed a two-year extension the next. In 2018, in his fourth year of eligibility, he signed a one-year, $23-million deal with Toronto, then a record for an arbitration-eligible player.

Some teams will refrain from summoning young stars so they can control the number of service days and the clock on arbitration eligibility. The Jays were criticized by the MLB Players’ Association when they didn’t include Guerrero in September roster expansion last year and sent him to the fall league instead.

The player’s union said the decision was “bad for fans, bad for the player, and bad for the industry.” The Jays claimed their focus was on Guerrero’s development, not any manipulation of the collective bargaining agreement.

There is also a cut-off time for Super Two status — it was two years and 134 days in 2018 — that could come into play if the Jays were thinking about calling Guerrero up and optioning him back to the minors later. But he is expected to remain in the big leagues for good once he gets there.

So when do the Jays call Guerrero up?

Other teams have flirted with the 172-day window in dealing with top prospects. Washington promoted outfielder Bryce Harper with 159 days left in 2012; Atlanta did the same with outfielder Ronald Acuna last year. The Cubs called up Kris Bryant with 171 days to go in 2015, sparking a grievance from the union. All three players went on to win the National League rookie of the year award.

The Jays, who will be under plenty of scrutiny, still want Guerrero to work on his fielding, defensive positioning and baserunning, And what if he in Buffalo? It’s unlikely — he has hit everywhere he has played in the minors, including a 30-game stint with the Bisons last season (.336, six homers, 16 RBIs) — but it’s possible.

Toronto seems certain to begin April without Guerrero — Jays GM Ross Atkins has already said that having Brandon Drury at third base “is the most likely scenario” when the season opens — but he should be with the big-league team before the month is out. It could be April 12 in Toronto, or during the following road trip to Minnesota and Oakland, or the homestand that runs to April 29.

One thing is certain: the countdown to Guerrero is on.