Bring on the heartbreak
The Star’s movie critic forecasts who’ll get the Oscar hardware on Sunday — and who should
There is only one sure thing about the Oscars: They will break your heart.
This year more than ever, with guideposts gone and uncertainty running like wild dogs in the street.
No matter what films and talent triumph at Sunday’s Academy Awards, there will likely be more people feeling shocked and appalled by the choices that there will be people celebrating them. Among them will be diehards still upset that their personal faves didn’t even land a nomination — such as the academy snubbing of First Reformed’s Ethan Hawke for Best Actor and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? for Best Documentary Feature.
We are condemned to live in divided but engaging times. A credible case can made for any of the eight Best Picture nominees to triumph, which guarantees a riveting finale for the telecast, which again will be too long. The recent addition of 1,600 new academy members, many of them women and people of colour, means it’s harder than ever to guess the choices of the now more than 7,900 Oscar voters.
Any number of surprises could happen Sunday. So be ready and don’t be too heartbroken by them. Your heart will go on, to quote the theme song of long-ago Best Picture champ Titanic — which incidentally beat my favourite film from that year, L.A. Confidential. I’ve stopped crying.
Let’s get down to it with my annual will/could/should Oscar predictions: Best Picture Will: Roma Could: Green Book or BlacKkKlansman — or just about anything. Should: Roma Why: Roma, Alfonso Cuarón’s Spanish-language memory movie about his early life in Mexico, is the most glorious expression of cinema art among the Best Picture nominees. Its numerous wins in many pre-Oscar industry votes suggest victory, but it will have to leap two sizable hurdles: All previous Best Picture winners have been in the English language, and no Netflix movie has ever triumphed in this category.
In this wide-open Oscar year, the Academy might instead go for the crowd-pleasing comedy Green Book or finally give Spike Lee his due with a win for historical thriller BlacKkKlansman. And the weird math of Best Picture’s preferential ballot, which includes second, third and subsequent choices, means you also can’t rule out Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, The Favourite, A Star Is Born or Vice to take top gold. Best Director Will: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Could: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Should: Alfonso Cuarón Why: This looks like Cuaron’s category to lose. He won the Directors Guild of America prize and other pre-Oscar kudos, and everybody agrees Roma is a masterful directorial statement, even if they don’t like the film. But how many prizes should Cuaron and Roma get? Why not give Best Director to Spike Lee to make up for past snubs of Spike Lee joints? Academy voters are asking themselves these questions, and most of them are probably not leaning toward Cold War’s Pawel Pawlikowski, The Favourite’s Yorgos Lanthimos or Vice’s Adam McKay. It’s between Cuaron and Lee. Best Actress Will: Glenn Close, The Wife Could: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Should: Glenn Close, The Wife
Why: This is one of the safest bets at this year’s Oscars. Close has been reaping acclaim for her slow-simmering portrayal of an unsung spouse since The Wife premiered at TIFF in 2017. Her likely win will be her first Oscar in seven attempts, which makes her even more of a popular choice than closest rival Lady Gaga, a first-time nominee for her strong Hollywood debut in A Star Is Born. Olivia Colman ( The Favourite) is another fine pick, but Yalitza Aparicio ( Roma) and Melissa McCarthy ( Can You Ever Forgive Me?) would be shock wins. Best Actor Will: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Could: Christian Bale, Vice Should: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Why: This is even an even better bet than Close. Malek playing Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody is the best thing about this hugely popular rock biopic, as even the film’s detractors admit. And the charming Malek has been relentlessly campaigning for the prize, unlike his nearest rival, the dour Bale ( Vice), who did a great job channelling a despotic Dick Cheney. It’s really between Malek and Bale, but Viggo Mortensen ( Green Book), Bradley Cooper ( A Star Is Born) and Willem Dafoe ( At Eternity’s Gate) are grateful for their nominations. Best Supporting Actress Will: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Could: Amy Adams, Vice Should: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Why: Many pundits, myself among them, are troubled that perceived front-runner King didn’t get a Screen Actors Guild Award nomination for playing the stoic mom in If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s traditionally a prerequisite for Academy love, since actors dominate the voters. But everybody believes King will win, as she has in many other votes, and aren’t the movies all about believing? She has competition from Adams ( Vice), a six-time Oscar nominee with no wins (yet). Votes split between The Favourite’s Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, meanwhile, means neither will likely win. And the surprise nomination of Marina de Tavira ( Roma) would become an even bigger surprise win. She’s worthy, but a real long-shot. Best Supporting Actor Will: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Could: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Why: Of course Ali should have been nominated for Best Actor, since he’s the co-lead with Mortensen in the twohander Green Book.
His studio’s cynical avoidance of vote splitting will likely be rewarded with a win nevertheless. Ali certainly deserves the prize, which he previously took for Moonlight in 2017, but I’d rather see Grant win for his truly supporting role as McCarthy’s charming rogue accomplice in Can You Ever Forgive Me? I suspect a lot of Oscar voters might be thinking the same way. As for Adam Driver ( BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott ( A Star Is Born) and Sam Rockwell ( Vice) — great work, guys, but see you next year. Best Original Screenplay Will: The Favourite Could: First Reformed Should: First Reformed Why: It’s a long-standing tradition that Oscar voters give screenplay awards to films that are just a little too edgy to be considered for Best Picture. Which makes this ideal logic to suggest a win for the bawdy fun of The Favourite‘ s satire of 18th-century British royalty and politics. If I were an Oscar voter, though, I’d give the nod to Paul Schrader’s First Reformed, an otherwise-overlooked drama of a clergyman’s crisis of faith in a world gone mad. Strange Oscar science could just as easily give the gold to Roma, Green Book or Vice. Best Adapted Screenplay Will: BlacKkKlansman
Could: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should: If Beale Street Could Talk
Why: If BlacKkKlansman wins here, it likely means it won’t win Best Picture, for the reasons stated above. Academy voters aren’t going to let Lee’s achievement go home emptyhanded, and he’s one of four screenwriters credited with adapting Ron Stallworth’s true story of a Black cop infiltrating the KKK in the 1970s. The closest competitor would be Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk, an adaptation of James Baldwin’s book (also set in the 1970s) about love in the time of racial oppression. I don’t see a serious challenge from any of the other nominees: A Star Is Born, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Can You Ever Forgive Me? And the rest …
Roma is likely to be the night’s numerical winner, even if no film will come close break the record for the most Oscars won at one time (which stands at 11, won by Titanic, Ben-Hur and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King). Besides Best Picture and Best Director, I also see Roma and Cuaron taking Best Cinematography and Best Foreign Language Film, for a total of four Oscars.
Bohemian Rhapsody could also grab four Oscars. Besides Best Actor for Malek, I’m also predicting wins for film editing, sound editing and sound mixing, based on the results of earlier industry votes. Getting the sound of Mercury right — reportedly a blend of several voices — was an amazing technical feat.
The Favourite could be the night’s biggest numerical loser, since it’s likely to cash in on just a few of its 10 nominations. Besides the screenplay prize, I see it also winning for production design and costumes. The film looks as cheeky as it sounds.
There were mixed reactions to Damien Chazelle’s First Man and its low-key depiction of Apollo 11 moonwalker Neil Armstrong. But everybody was jazzed by the film’s special effects, especially its recreation of the moon landing. I’m calling it for Best Visual Effects.
Best Animated Feature for Spider-Man Into the SpiderVerse, which is a grand feat of animation even if you don’t understand it or believe what your eyes are showing you.
Best Documentary Feature looks like a photo finish between the Ruth Bader Ginsburg doc RBG and the cliffclimbing jaw-dropper Free Solo. Both eminently worthy, but Judge Howell rules in favour of RBG.
Vice has got to win the makeup and hairstyling prize, for the incredible prosthetics work that made Christian Bale disappear beneath former U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney’s jowls. You don’t want Cheney dropping a bomb on Hollywood, do you?
It’s a fantastic year for film shorts, with a particularly strong Canadian contingent. I see Torontonian Domee Shi’s Bao winning for animated short, Montrealer Marianne Farley’s Marguerite for liveaction short and IranianAmerican Rayka Zehtabchi’s Period. End of Sentence. for documentary short.
Could this be the year the music awards are the consolation prizes? A Star Is Born is all but guaranteed to win Best Original Song for “Shallow,” since it keeps winning for that elsewhere.
And I’m guessing Black Panther’s score, which artfully dives into African grooves, will just edge that of the equally ear-worthy If Beale Street Could Talk. But what do I know? What does anybody? It’s been that kind of year at the Oscars.