There hasn't exactly been a run on stolen bases in the last few years but these Jays could surprise,
When Kendrys Morales shocked his teammates, not to mention the Twins, by stealing second base last May 1, it was the first base he had pilfered in 3,133 days.
There was no Blue Jay less likely to filch a bag.
But this was a club sorely lacking in rabbits on the basepaths: 40 stolen bases in 2018, 16th in the majors. Caught stealing 30 times. A really lousy ratio.
Kevin Pillar led the team with 14 steals, Teoscar Hernandez was next at five. Morales actually repeated the feat once more and was caught on three other attempts.
Cleveland was tops with 135 steals, followed by Tampa Bay (128) and Boston (125).
It’s not a category that Toronto has been particularly interested in, historically and certainly not in recent history. Which made sense for a lineup that boasted plenty of sluggers. Why bother with the risk when there’s a good chance the big boppers at the plate will ribbie you home?
That might change in 2019, with a younger roster and more than a few fleet-footed types.
“I love running so if I have the right guys on, I am going to run,” vows manager Charlie Montoyo, who saw a lot of stealing as the third base coach and then the bench coach with the Rays.
“We have a couple of guys who can run. Those guys are going to run. The guys who are not fast are not going to run. Teoscar (Hernandez) can do it. (Randal) Grichuk can do it. (Billy) McKinney can do it, with the right guy on the mound. We’ve got five or six who can steal bases. (Dalton) Pompey, if he makes the club, is for sure a base stealer.”
There are long odds that Pompey will make the ’19 Jays. Toronto’s most poignant — and maddening — memory of Pompey will doubtless be his entry as a pinch-runner in the ninth inning, Game 6 of the 2015 American League Championship Series. He stole second. He stole third. Pillar worked an eight-pitch walk and stole second. Nobody out with the Jays trailing Kansas City 4-3. But the tying run died 90 feet from home, Pompey stranded: strikeout, strikeout, grounder to third by Josh Donaldson with Jose Bautista on deck and the amazing ’15 run was over.
That nail-biting frame, however, reminded how much drama the stolen base can inject into a game.
Major League Baseball has apparently forgotten. Or discarded, via the paradigm of analytics, the merits of thievery.
There was a time, before home runs became all the rage, when base stealing was uber cool, personified by the headlong dazzle of fleeting Jay Rickey Henderson, who set a major-league record of 1,406, almost 500 more than the next closest player. For 12 straight seasons, from 1982 to 1993, at least 10 major-leaguers stole 40-plus bases. Since 1993, there have been only three seasons in which at least 10 players stole 40-plus bases and none since 2006. What happened? One-swing-of-the-bat jacks is what happened. Despite the fact that stolen-base success has actually increased since the ’80s, with a majors-wide success rate of 70 per cent or more over the past quarter-century.
Gone out of style, sadly, as has much of the small-ball game. The statistic doesn’t even appear in many baseball spreadsheets. Only one player has stolen 30-plus bags in each of the last seven seasons: 2017 MVP Jose Altuve. Stealing isn’t a one-trick pony asset because those who are stellar at it are expected, like Altuve, to be all-round players.
Whit Merrifield of the Royals led the charge last season, with 45 stolen bases, followed by Washington’s Trea Turner (43) and Seattle’s Mallex Smith (40).
No player in 2018 came close to 75 attempts. Only 13 players have attempted 75 in a season since 2000. Last season, teams averaged just 0.51 stolen bases per game, the lowest mark since 1972 (0.49), while the homer rate was fourth-highest of all time.
Can’t say today’s players lack speed because they most assuredly don’t, if not utilized for this exciting purpose. Average speed on a stolen base, from no less an authority that the Smithsonian Institution, is 3.5 seconds. MLB Statcast pegs Twins centre-fielder Byron Buxton as the fastest afoot — using feet run per second as the metric — at 30.5. The quickest Jay, at No. 87, is Hernandez (28.6). Grichuk (28.3) is No. 125.
There’s more to it than speed, of course. It’s knowing the pitcher’s pickoff times, information readily available to all players now, and when to test the throw, more difficult for a right-hander on the mound who has his back to first. Maybe even inducing a balk. It’s interpreting the pitcher’s body movements and rhythm. It’s the hitter at the plate doing his part to distract, knowing when the steal is on.
Even a slug — as opposed to slugger — can contribute tactically by getting hung up on the baselines, drawing a throw or starting a rundown, giving a runner on second or third an opportunity to steal third or home. When it doesn’t work, it’s a laughable mess. Which is what happened to the Jays against the Phillies in Clearwater last Friday, on a 6-5-4-3 put-out. On an error by the shortstop, Pillar blew through the stop sign from third base coach Luis Rivera, then halted 10 feet down the line. Meanwhile, Hernandez, for reasons unknown, thought it was a good idea to try taking second and got hung up. He couldn’t keep the rundown going long enough to score Pillar, who had to reverse and tag up before Hernandez got nailed on the third out.
Of course, baserunning misadventures characterized the Jays in 2018. There have been considerably fewer brain cramps on the evidence of this spring training.
Montoyo wants to see hustle on the paths from these Jays. Going into Monday’s game against Detroit, the Jays had stolen 13 bases, caught stealing eight times. Two of those larcenies came from spring wowing shortstop Bo Bichette, who was also caught once, Bichette was sent to minor-league camp Monday.
GM Ross Atkins was asked if he can live with that risk-taking vim. “Oh, absolutely. Obviously you want that (stolen base) rate to be above 80 per cent for it to be effective, where it starts to get less than efficient. But yeah, I love seeing that aggressiveness.”
Truly, there was often more “aggressiveness” shown by the Jays last season in the clubhouse, playing Fortnite.
Which, by the way, Montoyo has decided to curtail in the clubhouse, imposing a pregame curfew. The idea, he said, was prompted by the players.
“It’s just something I’ve always thought about,” the manager said. “But it came up with the players … They raised it. So I didn’t have to.”
You know, there’s a stealing-bases video game called Stealing Home. Maybe Jays should hunker over that instead.