THE STAR’S VIEW

Ottawa must stay firm on climate action, despite the right-wing rhetoric,

When it comes to dealing with climate change, there are two big trends at work in Canadian politics. Which one prevails will have a lot to do with determining the outcome of October’s federal election and the fate of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

One trend become even more sharply defined late on Tuesday night, when Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party swept to power in Alberta, vowing to reverse the New Democrats’ signature policies on climate and energy.

Right-leaning parties are on the upswing in much of the country. From Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in Ontario to the Coalition Avenir Québec government of François Legault, they have the wind in their sails.

The Trudeau Liberals now face a sea of blue from the Rockies to the Nova Scotia border. And with the exception of Quebec, which is sticking with its cap-and-trade system, all those governments are hostile to what has become the flashpoint of national politics: Ottawa’s plan to fight climate change by putting a price on carbon.

Yet at the same time there’s another trend at work. It’s not as dramatic, but it’s still powerful.

Despite the furious rhetoric coming out of Queen’s Park, the federal Conservatives and now Edmonton against the Liberals’ so-called “carbon tax,” Canadians actually want to see action on climate change. They see it as a real problem that demands real action; they can see it not only in academic studies predicting disaster down the road but in the evidence of their own eyes — the rising present-day costs of dramatically changing climate conditions.

Which is why, for example, a new survey shows that most Canadians support even more ambitious efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.

And why another survey suggests most Ontarians favour the Trudeau government’s carbon pricing scheme, especially when they understand that federal rebates will more than cover the cost for most households. This, despite the Ford government’s efforts to demonize the plan and frankly mislead voters about what it means for them.

The Liberals certainly weren’t hoping for a Kenney victory in Alberta; it immensely complicates their argument that building new pipelines goes hand in hand with the kind of responsible environmental policies that Rachel Notley’s NDP government was promoting.

But the disconnect between the rise in right-wing governments and voters’ desire to see action on climate change gives the Liberals a potential opening for the fall.

They have facts and logic on their side on this crucial issue. And the fact that Andrew Scheer’s federal Conservatives have yet to spell out an actual policy makes them vulnerable to the charge that they simply don’t take it seriously.

At the same time, there would be worse ways for Trudeau to campaign than as a foil to the likes of Doug Ford and Jason Kenney. He won’t persuade their faithful supporters to switch sides, but the spectre of Ford and Kenney pulling Andrew Scheer’s strings in the background may well be enough to convince even moderately progressive voters to stick with the Liberals, despite the baggage they’ve accumulated in the past two months with the SNC-Lavalin affair.

Trudeau’s father, Pierre, once mocked PC leader Joe Clark as “head waiter to the provinces,” meekly taking orders from Conservative heavyweights in the provinces rather than actually leading. Next to Ford and Kenney, two substantial figures, Scheer likewise shrinks in stature. And voters should want a national leader governing with the whole country in mind, not an errand boy for powerful provincial interests.

The Liberals have dug themselves a deep hole in recent weeks and given away their lead in public opinion. Things just got even tougher with the Conservative victory in Alberta. But the last thing they should do is retreat on an issue where they still have an edge — taking effective action on the environment.

The disconnect between the rise in right-wing governments and voters’ desire to see action on climate change gives the Liberals a potential opening