Key for Toronto is more of the same
Leafs took over possession in Game 4, now they must finish
The Maple Leafs are facing an uphill climb in their first-round series with the Boston Bruins. The series is tied 2-2 but Boston has regained home-ice advantage. Here’s a look at how the two teams have fared so far, and what each team must do to advance to Round 2:
Shots: Boston has outshot the Leafs 146-140 through four games. In shot-attempts percentage, the basic indication of how well a team is generating scoring chances, the Leafs rank eighth in the playoffs at 51.4 per cent, the Bruins ninth at 48.46. Auston Matthews is third in the playoffs with 19 shots on goal, while leading all shooters in this series with 33 shot attempts. The perceived difference from last season’s playoff series — that Boston won because it was the tougher, heavier team — has faded. The Bruins started what coach Bruce Cassidy called his “fast” lineup for their Game 2 victory, but it has not limited the Leafs in terms of shots or scoring chances.
Possession: Boston had the puck for 55 per cent of Games 1 and 2, while the teams were split evenly in Game 3. In Game 4, the Leafs controlled the puck a whopping 61 per cent, and still lost the game. Toronto was outscored in the first and second period — with two Bruins goals coming on the power play — despite controlling the puck 55 and 71 per cent of the time, respectively.
Top players: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are the only Leaf forwards averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, while Brad Marchand is the only Bruins forward in that range. Patrice Bergeron and John Tavares are at about 19 minutes and appear to be more focused on defensive responsibilities than generating offence. Morgan Rielly, after a career-best 20 goals in the regular season, has yet to score in this series (three assists) and could be due for a breakout. Boston defenceman Charlie McAvoy scored a power-play goal three minutes into his team’s Game 4 win. It was an important goal in a pivotal win.
Secret weapons: Toronto’s fourth line has received recognition during the series largely for its positive possession metrics, shot attempts and heavy play. Their ability to wear down a defence could help Toronto’s top lines. William Nylander is in the top five in this series in shot attempts, puck possession and creativity in the offensive zone. Better finishing — he has one goal — could help Toronto finish out this series. Charlie Coyle has been strong for Boston, joining Bergeron, Marchand and David Pastrnak as the only Bruins with two goals.
How Toronto advances: They do more of the same. They are faster than the Bruins and can both retrieve pucks and rush pucks successfully against their defence. Boston is strong at collapsing around their goal and closing shooting lanes. Toronto has to fight through the heavy area and capitalize more in the offensive zone.
How Boston advances: Boston’s success so far has been based on the fact they are a heavier team than the Leafs in the traditional sense — size and hits. Both teams won games by executing their game plans and checking schemes over their opponent, and the Bruins were particularly aggressive in their Game 2 win. Their top line has been inconsistent; if it finds its groove, it’ll be a deciding factor.