Let’s get the whole picture
On Wednesday, Statistics Canada released data that compares deaths in the first three months of 2020 against the same period in 2019.
It’s preliminary and incomplete — much depends on how quickly or slowly provinces report deaths from all causes — but the federal agency thought it was important to start releasing interim data now instead of waiting, as it usually does, until well after the end of a calendar year.
The timely release of data, which will improve in quality in the coming months, is welcome to see. But there’s a big gap: the information contains nothing for Ontario, the most populous province by far, home to almost 40 per cent of all Canadians.
Ontario is so slow to report its mortality figures that it couldn’t be included in the report.
That’s disappointing. And if it isn’t changed quickly it will become a major gap in the data that could hold back our understanding of the complete effect of the pandemic.
COVID-19 is both a deadly disease and the cause of a forced shutdown of our regular way of life. The health and economic crisis it created didn’t really take hold in Canada until the middle of March so the statistics comparing this April, May and beyond, to the same months last year, may be particularly instructive.
Canadians hear a lot about COVID-19 numbers. There are daily federal, provincial and municipal updates detailing cases and deaths. But as to what else is happening because of the pandemic, we know very little.
Health experts have raised concerns that deaths from other health conditions may be on the rise, given that much of our regular health-care system has been put on hold, chronic conditions are going untreated, and people are scared even to go to a hospital emergency room.
The flip-side is that fewer people are going to work and people are driving so little they’re demanding a break on their vehicle insurance. That may be contributing to a reduction in fatalities due to accidents and motor vehicles.
If Ontario continues to delay in handing over mortality data it will be difficult to assess what broad trends may be at work here — including whether the official COVID-19 numbers are actually under-reporting the true death toll.
Statistics Canada has shifted how it normally operates to release interim mortality data and update it monthly going forward. That’s what happens in a pandemic, when the latest data can prove useful.
Ontario needs to get on board with gathering and sharing data at a speed more suited to the times, especially since Premier Doug Ford has promised to share with Ontarians all the information he has.
Ontario was the first province to publicly provide detailed coronavirus modelling, including death projections, knowing full-well that those numbers and assumptions were subject to change.
“I want to make sure the people of Ontario know what I know,” Ford said then. “We have to be fully transparent with the people of Ontario, no matter how hard it is.” So what happened? Not only did the province fail to provide Statistics Canada with timely data for Wednesday’s report, it refused — unlike other provinces — to provide death statistics when the Star asked for them last week.
“Releasing statistical information that is incomplete or inaccurate is not in the public’s best interest as it could result in misinterpretation,” a government spokesperson said.
When it came to COVID-19 modelling, Ford said Ontarians deserved to see the same information that he has.
That was refreshing to hear. It would be a shame if it was such a short-lived change in attitude.