Pearson is in position to be Toronto’s wild card
The Blue Jays added one frontline starter this winter by signing Hyun-Jin Ryu to a four-year deal. A second one could be on the way with the imminent arrival of top prospect Nate Pearson.
Pearson might end up having a much bigger impact on the 2020 season than previously thought. If the owners and players eventually reach an agreement on an 82-game schedule, the 23-year-old is in position to become the club’s ultimate X-factor, the one guy who could speed up Toronto’s rebuild by providing a highquality arm to complement an emerging young core of position players.
That wasn’t the case a few short months ago.
Toronto was expected to keep Pearson in the minors for at least the first month of the season, and likely a good chunk of the second. At most, he would have been around for 75 per cent of the year, and by the time he arrived the Yankees and Rays already could have been running away with the division.
Pearson wasn’t being considered for a spot in the rotation during the spring because the Jays felt he needed more time to develop. The native of Florida had just three career appearances above double-A under his belt, and there were valid workload concerns for a guy who has tossed just 1231⁄ 3 career innings. Pearson was at least one year away from being able to pitch an entire season, and creativity would be required to get him through a full six months.
That’s why there was a plan in place to have Pearson open the year at triple-A Buffalo. To manage his innings, the club intended to ease him into the start of the season or build him up early, followed by at least a couple of short outings to save his bullets for later in the year. Some of the reasons behind Toronto’s strategy still exist, but they aren’t nearly as relevant as they were a few short months ago.
The coronavirus outbreak changed everything.
A condensed schedule and expanded post-season format mean the Jays might be able to contend sooner than first expected. Add in the likely cancellation of the minorleague season and the need for Pearson to continue his development in real games, and there are more than enough reasons to justify throwing caution to the win by unleashing one of the most promising prospects in the game.
Under normal circumstances, service time would be the primary concern, just like it was a year ago with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If Toronto optioned Pearson to the minors for at least 16 days, it would have pushed back his free agency until at least 2027. By promoting him right away, the Jays would risk losing almost a full year. Despite the public scrutiny, it’s a no-brainer for any team to make with an elite prospect.
Manipulating service time also technically breaks the rules. Teams can’t say a player is being kept in the minors because of his contract, so instead they justify their decision by pointing to areas that still need improvement, which is easy enough to do for just about anyone. For Guerrero, it was defence, before an injury further delayed his arrival. For
Pearson, it’s reps.
By most accounts, the 2017 first-round draft pick is bigleague ready. Blue Jays hitters raved about Pearson’s stuff in spring training. His velocity was so overpowering during the early days of camp that bench coach Dave Hudgens offered a financial reward to anyone who could barrel up one of the pitches. The cash never left his wallet.
Very few people question Pearson’s raw talent, but there were valid reasons the Jays could have — and would have — used to justify keeping him down. Starters need to be able to throw at least 160 innings to get through a full season and Pearson likely would have been limited to approximately 130. Toronto’s cautious approach is entirely defensible, or at least it was.
So, what changed? Well, a lot of things. MLB is currently plotting its return, but the minor-league season might never get off the ground. A limited group of players are expected to continue working out in preparation for a call-up, but one would have a difficult time making the case that the best thing for Pearson’s development is bullpens and simulated games, when he could be facing big-league hitters.
There’s also an increased chance the Jays will try to remain competitive by making a run at a spot in the postseason. Toronto wasn’t considered a contender before, but with seven teams in each league expected to make the playoffs under the league’s current proposal, there is a larger margin for error. Suddenly, there might be room for a third team to come out of the east alongside favourites New York and Tampa Bay and there are more incentives for a winnow approach.
The Jays might have the Pearson decision made for them during the current round of negotiations between the players and owners. If the minor-league season is cancelled, teams are expected to use expanded rosters and a taxi squad of players who will continue training in preparation for a call-up.
The details surrounding the taxi squad have yet to emerge, but it is logical to assume the union will demand service time. While MLB could balk at that idea, some concessions will have to be made for the players who are risking their health to stay ready. A bigleague paycheque seems like a fair ask, and if players on the bubble accrue service time, holding back Pearson for contractual reasons becomes a moot point.
A few months ago, Pearson was the hotshot prospect who required patience before his opportunity would arrive. Now he’s shaping up to be Toronto’s biggest wild card in a year when just about any team could have a shot at making the post-season.