Toronto held back as regions move on
Reopening too soon could risk causing even more economic damage, experts say
If you were thinking that Toronto feels like one of the last places in North America mostly under lockdown, you’d be right.
The city, along with Peel and WindsorEssex, remains stranded in Stage 1 of the province’s reopening plan given that these three regions continue to produce the bulk of Ontario’s new daily COVID-19 cases.
That means no patio dining at restaurants. No open shopping malls. No professional hair cuts.
Ontario is currently Canada’s “most closed economy,” with 43 per cent of small businesses open, according to survey results released Tuesday by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
Many of those businesses that are still closed are likely in the Toronto and Peel areas, said Ryan Mallough, director for provincial affairs for Ontario at the CFIB.
Much of the rest of the continent appears to be moving at a faster pace. For example, in Montreal, another Canadian hotbed of COVID-19 infections, barbershops were permitted to reopen Monday under strict conditions.
Mallough said the CFIB is pleased the Ontario government decided to adopt a regional approach, in that it allowed other parts of the province to reopen faster given their low case numbers.
This includes the regions surrounding Toronto and Peel, including Halton, York, and Durham, which will be able to move into Stage 2 as of Friday.
“But at the same time if you’re a business owner in Toronto, it’s already frustrating if you’re a hairstylist and see one
in Montreal reopen and now maybe you’re seeing one across the street, but you can’t open,” he said.
“It’s very frustrating from a business perspective.
“They very much want to reopen and start generating revenue again.”
Economists say that keeping Toronto in Stage 1 for a few more weeks will of course prolong the already devastating impact that the pandemic has had the economy.
But if the city were to reopen too early and see a surge of new outbreaks, that could lead to a full shutdown again, they say, which would be even worse for the economy.
Just look at Houston, where the Texas city of five million largely reopened last week, but where officials have already cautioned that a recent surge in new cases may force them to shut down again.
“That’s the thing we should be most worried about, not whether it takes an extra week or two to reopen,” said David Macdonald, senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
“I think it’s important to note that if we were to open too soon and saw a second wave, the impact of shutting down a second time would, I’m sure, be far worse than waiting an extra week or two to make sure we have outbreaks under control.”
Though no exact date has been given by the government, it’s reasonable to believe that
Toronto could at last move into Stage 2 in a week or so should the number of new positive cases continue to decline, said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician at Toronto General Hospital.
“I think it is reasonable, but we also have to remember it’s not a linear path forward. If there are outbreaks, we might need to clamp back down and that’s a distinct possibility,” he said. “I think that should be an important part of the communication … If there are a high number of cases in a particular area or throughout the province, we might need to reimpose public health restrictions.”
The question also remains as to how many Toronto businesses will even be able to survive once they’re given the green light to reopen.
“Smaller businesses particularly, the longer they’re closed, the more difficult it is for them to open, because they’re paying their fixed costs like rent and they’re running out of money,” said Sherry Cooper, chief economist, Dominion Lending Centres.
Even once restaurants, for example, can finally start serving people again on patios in Toronto, recovery will still be a long way off, said Mallough at the CFIB.
For one thing, they’ll be operating at reduced capacity to meet physical distancing requirements.
“We may see a bit of a boom at the beginning, but we’re talking about three months for most businesses of near zero revenue,” he said, referring to the time these businesses have been largely closed.
“A good summer it not going to make up for that. A great summer is not going to make up for that.”