O’Toole, MacKay trade barbs in French debate
Long shots Lewis, Sloan compete for influence in their one-on-one battle
Erin O’Toole began with an apology over any mistakes. Peter MacKay with a request to excuse his accent. And Derek Sloan and Leslyn Lewis read their opening statements, eyes down on their notes.
So began the Conservative leadership contest’s first and only French-language debate Wednesday night, where the four candidates attempted — with varying degrees of proficiency — to woo francophone party members to their banners.
While four candidates are competing for the leadership, Wednesday’s debate was very much two distinct one-on-one battles.
O’Toole and MacKay — former cabinet colleagues under Stephen Harper, and the two candidates with the best shot at winning — attacked each other early, often and aggressively. At multiple points, the two men sparred over which one had attacked the other first while talking over each other.
Sloan and Lewis, meanwhile, are considered long shots — both running as social conservatives, both with no national profile before the leadership race, but both with decent fundraising behind them. Sloan made an early attempt to pick a fight with Lewis over the Paris climate targets, which failed as Lewis stuck closely to her notes. The dynamic sums up the race, as many Conservatives see it: MacKay and O’Toole competing for the leadership, with Lewis and Sloan competing for a strong third place and influence within the party.
But it wasn’t just the candidates’ policy at issue Wednesday night. Their ability to communicate in both of Canada’s official languages was also centre stage.
Yan Plante, a director at Quebec-based public affairs agency TACT and a former senior Conservative staffer, said O’Toole has a slight edge in French proficiency. But Plante said that MacKay, once he goes off script, comes across as much more understandable in his second language.
“To me their French is not at the level of (outgoing Conservative leader Andrew Scheer) and far away from the level of (former prime minister Stephen) Harper,” Plante, who served as former minister Denis Lebel’s chief of staff, said in an interview during the debate.
“Yes, there’s something to work with, depending on what the expectation is … If the expectation is to win 35 seats (in Quebec), that’s going to be very complicated. If the expectation is to win 10 to 15 seats, I think there’s enough skill there that, with a bit of work over the next year or so, it can bring them to an acceptable level to at least keep what (the party) has right now.”
Mired in unspecified technical difficulties, the debate started 40 minutes behind schedule. One wag on Twitter noted that until that point, the French had been perfect.
Conservatives routinely point to membership sales — how many eligible Conservative voters each campaign signs up — as a more important metric than debate performance.
From that perspective, MacKay entered the evening as a clear front-runner. While the party was still processing membership purchased before the March 15 voting eligibility deadline, MacKay claims to have sold more memberships than any candidate in a Conservative leadership race.
Campaigns and insiders have privately floated numbers, which are promptly dismissed as inflated by their rivals. But
MacKay did out-fundraise the field, bringing in about $1.05 million from 3,400 contributors in the first three months of 2020.
Combined with better name recognition and stronger roots within the Conservative movement, MacKay is thought to have a significant — but not insurmountable — lead.
O’Toole has had a more difficult path to victory, trying to stitch together enough support from the various camps within the Conservative party — including social conservatives. But heading into the pandemic, and the subsequent halt of traditional leadership campaigning, O’Toole looked to have made up some ground — raising $785,000 in the first three months of the year from roughly 4,200 donors.
Over the course of the campaign, O’Toole has avoided some of the high-profile missteps that plagued MacKay’s campaign in the early days of the race. But last week, he had to walk back his pledge to end fossil fuel subsidies. On Monday, he had to clarify his concerns with a Liberal proposal to ban “conversion therapy,” a discredited practice of attempting to “convert” those who identify as LGBTQ2 to heterosexuality.
Lewis and Sloan, both running as social conservative candidates, are seen as long shots. But Lewis, a Toronto lawyer and former party candidate, has impressed some Conservative activists with a disciplined campaign and has started to receive more attention for her “pragmatic” social conservative stands.
Sloan, a rookie MP from Ontario, appears to be courting a more fringe vote — questioning the loyalty of chief public health officer Theresa Tam to Canada; mimicking U.S. President Donald Trump’s positions on the World Health Organization and labelling “antifa” as a terrorist organization; and sharply limiting immigration.
Jenni Byrne, a political consultant who served in senior positions during the Harper government, said MacKay performed well Wednesday night and O’Toole may want to recalibrate his approach before Thursday’s English-language debate.
“I think Peter MacKay exceeded expectations tonight, he looked extremely comfortable,” Byrne said in an interview.
“It was evident that between Peter and Erin, they’re the two front-runners. And I think Erin needs to come out of the gate tomorrow being less chippy, and speak more about policy … (And MacKay) needs to make sure they don’t let it go to their head and get a bit cocky tomorrow.”
The Conservative party is expected to name its next leader on Aug. 21, or as soon as the mail-in ballots can be tallied.