$18B for 8 more weeks of CERB

A Liberal pledge to provide eight extra weeks of payments through the cornerstone benefit for people who’ve lost all or nearly all their work due to the COVID-19 pandemic will probably cost the government $17.9 billion, the parliamentary budget officer says.

Tuesday’s report from budget officer Yves Giroux said that would bring the net cost of the Canada Emergency Response Benefit to $71.3 billion.

The CERB has paid out $52.14 billion to more than eight million people as of Sunday, as demand surges past original expectations.

With the first 16-week limit on payments coming early next month, the Liberals have promised to increase it to 24 weeks to provide summer help for those who need it.

Giroux’s report says the additional cost to the program depends heavily on the outlook for the economy and jobs, as well as the course of the pandemic. Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough and Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, warned Monday that not everyone will have a job to go back to as restrictions ease and businesses reopen.

The report says further uncertainty over the final cost of the program rests on the actual take-up of the separate federal wage subsidy program, which the Liberals plan to retool.

A report from a group of experts convened by the C.D. Howe Institute urged the Liberals to take the extra time bought by extending the CERB to rework the program and put in a program to help recipients retrain for other or better jobs.