Health officials warn of fall case surge
U.S. border will stay closed to non-essential traffic for another month
OTTAWA— Canada and the U.S. will keep their border closed to non-essential traffic as Canadian public health authorities warn they expect a fall spike in COVID-19 cases that could still overwhelm the health-care system.
The federal government released new data projections Friday that suggested a “reasonable worst case scenario” could be an outbreak this autumn that exceeds the severity of COVID-19’s impact in Canada in the early spring. That’s when the virus peaked at nearly 2,800 new cases on one day in early May. Health Canada forecasts “peaks and valleys” of outbreaks until January 2022, some of which could exceed the health system’s ability to cope.
Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, declined to call it a “second wave,” but she warned that COVID-19 could “collide” with influenza season and produce a perfect storm in hospital emergency rooms.
Tam sidestepped questions about how many infections could be expected during a fall peak, or to say which provinces are the most vulnerable.
But she flagged several worrying signs as schools, bars, restaurants, gyms and other areas of the economy reopen in staggered fashion:
The number of new cases reported daily across Canada has increased in recent weeks, including in B.C., which had seemed to stop the virus outbreak in its tracks but on Thursday reported 78 new cases — as many as it had at the height of the outbreak in that province.
Since early July, the highest incidence of COVID-19 has been reported among people aged 20 to 39.
Countries that had early success in getting the virus under control are now seeing resurgences.
Tam said while many Canadians are following public health advice to use masks, wash their hands and practise physical distancing, it’s vital that they remain vigilant.
“We are on that slow burn kind of trajectory but it doesn’t take much for things to escalate,” said Tam.
Also Friday, Public Safety Minister Bill Blair announced the Canada-U. S. border would remain closed for an additional 30 days — the fifth such extension since March, when the unprecedented shutdown first took effect.
A senior government official, speaking on background, said this week a majority of Canadians are satisfied with the deal that allows essential traffic in goods and services back and forth across the border, but bars travel for tourism or recreational purposes, and don’t want to see the border opened up anytime soon. The official refused to speculate when restrictions might lift but agreed it could continue for several more months.
“We are on that slow burn kind of trajectory but it doesn’t take much for things to escalate.”
DR. THERESA TAM CANADA’S CHIEF PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICER
Tam said the decision to lift restrictions on the border is being continually assessed, but that the situation is “quite clear” in the U.S., which has more than 5.4-million COVID-19 cases — a quarter of the global total. “Every month when we do evaluate that situation again, we’ll take into account what’s going on both sides of the border,” Tam said. “But as we look at further planning out, we have to look at different options of how we can increase safely — as safely as possible — international travel … using different layers of measures to try and reduce the risk of importation and spread.”
The latest federal numbers show 121,234 Canadians have been diagnosed with COVID-19, with 4,666 cases still active. A total of 9,015 people have died.
Quebec and Ontario are still the hottest zones for both infections and number of deaths.
The new modelling shows that by Aug. 23, the number of infections could climb to 127,740 and the number of deaths could rise to 9,115.
Tam and Dr. Howard Njoo said federal authorities are advising provinces to “overplan” for the worst case scenario as schools reopen, cooler weather drives Canadians indoors and influenza season returns.
The virus could also evolve and pose new risks, Tam said.
“We don’t know the seasonality of this virus. It’s continued throughout summer, that’s for sure, but what if it demonstrates a certain type of acceleration under certain conditions?”
She said the potential remains for new outbreaks to overwhelm the system, despite efforts to buy new ventilators, medical supplies and personal protective equipment.
Tam urged all Canadians, and especially young people, to download the COVID-19 Alert app, which notifies users if they’ve had contact with someone exposed to the virus and has already been downloaded by an estimated 1.9 million Canadians.
Asked if she foresees social distancing and working from home even if a COVID-19 vaccine is developed, Tam said the government is assessing the situation “two weeks at a time” and not making long-term predictions.