Hospitals are full as cases surge in Ontario ‘hot spots’

Durham, Halton report upward trend, but still skirt Stage 2 restrictions

Amidst record-high numbers of new COVID-19 cases across Ontario in recent days, the province’s already-crowded hospitals can expect increasing demand for beds from new coronavirus patients while longterm-care homes will continue to see more cases among residents, experts warn.

The rolling seven-day average of new cases of the virus Ontario-wide set a record Monday with 908.3, up from last Monday’s average of 777.7 daily cases. The growth was driven primarily by new cases in the province’s so-called “hot spots” — Toronto, Peel, York and Ottawa, with notable increases also occurring in Durham and Halton regions.

“If you ask around the hospital, are we nervous? Absolutely, because right now our hospitals are 100 per cent full,” said Dr. Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Sinai Health System and University Health Network in Toronto, adding the current numbers reflect the spread of the virus two weeks ago, namely Thanksgiving. “I don’t get the sense that everyone out there is really adhering to the guidance as we should,” Sinha said. “I just think the situation we’re slowly walking towards is a situation that will be more dire in a couple of weeks.”

In the meantime, here is the Star’s weekly check-in on how the province is faring in its battle against COVID-19.

Provincewide growth

On Monday evening, Ontario’s local public health units were reporting 927 new COVID-19 infections, with Toronto leading with 300 cases, followed by Peel with 172, York with 94 and Ottawa with 76. Durham and Halton each reported 47 and 18 new cases respectively.

Neither Durham nor Halton are under the modified Stage 2 rules that the other regions are in.

Health Minister Christine Elliott told reporters Monday that Halton “has been sort of on the edge for a period of time,” and that any decision to impose restrictions on that region would be based on a number of factors, including medical evidence, discussions with the local medical officer of health and the ability of the public health system to follow up with testing, tracing and isolating.

“There’s a number of factors that need to be considered and Halton will be considered, as with any of the other areas that we’re concerned about right now,” Elliott said.

Last week, Premier Doug Ford said he hoped to have a decision on whether to send Halton back to a modified Stage 2 by the beginning of this week, but no announcement was forthcoming Monday.

Experts say it’s likely we are still not getting a true sense of the spread of the virus in Ontario because not enough people are getting tested. Even though the province’s testing capacity is close to 50,000 samples per day, just 28,652 were completed Sunday and just under 39,000 the day before that.

Regional woes

Peel’s medical officer of health, Dr. Lawrence Loh, confirmed Monday that the region is in its second wave of the pandemic. “Firstly, we’re seeing a significant decrease in our doubling time and rapid growth of cases,” he explained. The seven day rolling average of cases in Peel was 192 on Monday, up from 87.7 a month ago. “And secondly, in our preliminary investigation of those cases, we are now starting to see cases identified outside of known chains of transmission,” he said. “So this is suggesting we are having more widespread transmission in the community.”

Dr. Karim Kurji, York Region’s medical officer of health, had a similar message on Monday. Kurji said people can be infectious up to two days before symptoms and because of that, residents should be “limiting severely the number of contacts we have with people outside our own households.”

Cases in York are at an all-time high and there are a number of outbreaks in workplaces, said Kurji, as well as 50 schools under surveillance. The region is averaging more than 90 cases a day and has a four per cent positivity rate.

Dr. Hamidah Meghani, Halton’s medical officer of health, announced last week that the region has had more than 25 cases per 100,000 — the threshold for restrictions according to the province’s science advisory table, she said — for two weeks in October.

Hospitalizations rising

While hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are nowhere near the peak of the first wave in the spring, they are slowly creeping up. Since Oct. 1, the number of patients in ICUs has risen from 17 to 27, while the number of people on ventilators has more than doubled to 51. There are a further 217 people in non-ICU hospital beds.