Premier promises a ‘surgical’ approach to restrictions
Ford argues against applying a ‘broad brush across any industry’
Premier Doug Ford says he’s looking at a more “surgical” approach to COVID-19 restrictions with the latest computer models predicting Ontario will have between 800 and 1,200 new infections daily for the next four weeks.
“We are seeing continued growth,” Dr. Dirk Huyer, the provincial chief of outbreak response, told a briefing on the modelling Thursday as the province saw an overnight jump of 100 cases to 934 — the fourth-highest of the pandemic after a record of 1,042 was set Sunday.
“There is some slowing of that growth … it speaks to the efforts everybody is making,” Huyer added.
The 1,200 case level would be in a worst-case scenario. New infections have been in the 800s most days since Oct. 20, and primarily in the Greater Toronto Area.
Acknowledging Toronto, Peel and Ottawa are three weeks into a 28-day period in modified Stage 2 restrictions banning indoor dining and closing gyms and theatres, Ford suggested he’s considering more tailored measures as warranted by data.
He cited the split between urban hot zones and rural areas in Peel as an example.
“We’ve seen a few bumps in the road with Mississauga and Brampton. And Caledon, they ’re complaining that they’re getting punished because the numbers are escalating in other regions. I think a surgical approach would be a lot better.”
“We’re working on modified conditions,” Ford added during a stop in Barrie at the Napoleon barbecue factory, arguing against a “broad brush across any industry, no matter if it’s gyms, small boutique gyms or large gyms or be it any restaurants.”
“We’re working on coming up with a safe plan, with collaboration with all the local mayors and local health teams. And then we’ll make a decision before this 28 days runs out,” the premier said.
University of Toronto infection control epidemiologist Colin Furness said he considers the computer modelling “optimistic” and questioned whether the high case counts lately are the second wave or just the baseline for it.
“Either way, there is no doubt that we’re on a tightrope right now. COVID wants to skyrocket.”
The trajectory of the pandemic could “dramatically turn and you could have rapid, rapid growth quite quickly” if the province experiences more super-spreader events, warned Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the science table advising Ford and dean of the Dalla Lana
School of Public Health at U of T.
He told the briefing that the pace of growth in hospitalizations has slowed to 56 per cent in the last three weeks — down from five times that earlier in September and early October — and that the number of patients in ICU is not expected to overwhelm the system given current trends. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said details of the modelling are much less optimistic than Ford led Ontarians to believe Wednesday when he said “we see the curve going down, which is great news.”
“Ontario still faces serious challenges in our battle against COVID-19. I’m disappointed at the unhelpful mixed messages from Doug Ford.”
Green Leader Mike Schreiner accused the premier of offering “false hope.”
The daily statistics brought another grim milestone with the number of resident deaths in nursing homes rising by five, boosting the total to 2,001 as Brown noted fatalities in longterm care have been “sharply rising” in recent weeks, with 85 since Aug. 15.
There were no projections in the computer modelling for deaths in the broader population, but officials said the increasing incidence of cases in older age groups will lead to more people dying. There have been 3,118 deaths in the province to date.
Officials released some figures showing the source of 65 per cent of COVID-19 infections among Toronto residents are unknown, meaning it’s not known where or how the person caught the virus.
That compares with almost 49 per cent in Ottawa, 27 per cent in Durham, 17 in Peel, 15 per cent in York and eight per cent in Halton.
Peel has the most cases per 100,000 population at 83, followed by Toronto at 72, York at 54 and Ottawa at 47. Peel also leads in the percentage of people being tested who are positive for the virus at 6.5 per cent versus 4.8 per cent in Toronto, 4.5 in York and three per cent in Ottawa.
Ten more Ontarians required hospital care for COVID-19, raising that tally to 322 with 77 in intensive care, up six, and 52 requiring ventilators to breathe, an increase of one. Health officials said those numbers are expected to rise because hospitalizations lag new infections by a few weeks.
There were 99 more cases of the virus in schools, with 581 or 12 per cent of the province’s schools reporting cases. No schools are closed because of outbreaks, an improvement from previous weeks.