Too early to lift Stage 2, experts warn
Mayor, business owners want restrictions eased as soon as possible
Toronto Mayor John Tory would like to see the modified Stage 2 restrictions on bars and restaurants lifted at the end of 28 days, but epidemiologists warn that may be too soon.
“To open things up while we don’t have a declining number of cases, and a low number of cases, is setting us up for real disaster in my mind,” said infectious disease specialist Dr. Andrew Morris.
Ontario reported record numbers of infections this week: more than 1,000 new cases were reported in the province on Sunday and 374 cases in Toronto on Thursday, with the number of new infections remaining in the low-to-mid 300s for the week.
However, the number of hospitalizations in Toronto remained relatively stable and the reproductive number hovered around 1, according to Toronto Public Health, meaning each new infection is generating one more infection. The reproductive number needs to get below one for the epidemic to wane.
Morris said Toronto is in danger of following in the footsteps of countries in Europe, which tried to tolerate having a large number of cases.
“They go on for a certain period of time and it seems rather stable, and there’s no new admissions to hospital or the number that do go to hospital seems rather acceptable, and then it takes off.
“That pattern has happened repeatedly,” said Morris, citing France, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium and Germany as examples.
He said re-opening too widely now would mean having to take more drastic action further down the road. He thinks that all congregate settings need to be shut down, except for schools. He also believes there is a health argument to be made that gyms be kept open, for those who can’t get their physical activity at home or outdoors.
But gyms, restaurants and bars are growing louder in their unhappiness over having to remain shut and claiming there is little hard evidence to support the closing.
They point to data from the province on Thursday, which revealed there have been 27 identified outbreaks in Toronto bars and restaurants, and these account for 17 per cent of all outbreaks in the city.
“Restaurants are, in many ways being singled out and there is no good reason to keep us closed. I think that is the feeling in the industry right now,” said James Rilett, a spokesperson for Restaurants Canada.
A coalition of 46 operators and industry leaders signed a letter to Premier Doug Ford asking for clear and transparent data to understand what is driving government decisions related to dining restrictions. They are also asking for government consultations with the industry to address any concerns.
According to the letter, restaurants across the country have invested more than $750 million since the start of the pandemic in new procedures and training, personal protective equipment, sanitizer stations and air purification systems to protect staff and customers.
JAMES RILETT
“Every other industry has been allowed to go about their business, and to have basically done everything they’ve been asked to do, they’ve invested millions in PPE and different sanitation and operational changes, yet we still continue to be singled out,” said Rilett in an interview.
Dan Kelly, representing the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses, says its research predicts there will be 160,000 permanent business closures in Canada directly attributable to COVID-19.
“I think most businesses were incredibly patient, understanding and willing to basically bleed in order to protect society during the March-april-may lockdowns, but, as we move into the second wave, business owners are asking a lot of tough questions,” said Kelly.
“There’s a growing impatience for some of the measures that have been taken.”
Tory said this week that he has asked Toronto Public Health to come up with at least one scenario for the end of the current restrictions on gyms and dining in at restaurants that includes re-opening. The restrictions began on Oct. 10.
In an interview Friday, Tory said that, while he will act on the advice of public health, as he has been doing since the start of the pandemic, he has been in discussions with businesses and business groups and understands they are suffering.
He calls the idea “Doors Open Safely,” and he thinks it might be possible to take the same approach that was taken with schools in September.
“I felt quite strongly that, for the well-being of the employees, the business people, that you need to find a way to try to re-open and stay open, but do it safely,” Tory said.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch said the number that concerns him most is the 65 per cent of cases in Toronto where no epidemiological link has been found, suggesting that not enough is known about the path of the disease because not enough contact-tracing is being done.
He warned that ending restrictions too early risks undoing the progress that has been made. He said that, while the number of cases is growing, the rate of growth has slowed, the earliest sign of improvement.
“Restaurants are, in many ways being singled out and there is no good reason to keep us closed.” RESTAURANTS CANADA