It’s not Guerrero’s call where he plays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made it known he intends to re-stake his claim to third base. Unfortunately for the 21-yearold Dominican, that’s a decision he no longer gets to make.
The Blue Jays would be crazy to promise anything this early in the off-season. There are a few scenarios where putting Guerrero at third might make sense as a short-term move, there are far more that suggest keeping him at first base or designated hitter is an easy call.
If the Jays keep Guerrero at first, they have all kinds of flexibility. They could acquire a shortstop like Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor through trade while moving Bo Bichette to second and Cavan Biggio to third. They could keep Bichette at short and sign someone like Kolten Wong to play second. Or they could add a third baseman and have everyone stay put.
There are a lot of middle infielders and third basemen available. DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Ha-Seong Kim, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Turner and Jonathan Schoop are among the free agents in this year’s deep class. Trevor Story, Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar and others are potentially up for grabs in trades.
If Guerrero went to third, first base offers far less promise. The market is similar to a year ago when Toronto signed Travis Shaw with hopes of a bounceback season. Justin Smoak, Carlos Santana, Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland and Daniel Murphy are the top free agents at the position. Designated hitters like Nelson Cruz and Marcell Ozuna are less enticing if Guerrero requires regular days off from the field.
Things could change if a top first baseman becomes available at a reasonable price but, until that happens, there shouldn’t be any rush to move Guerrero, even if his claims of dropping 12 pounds since the end of the year — and 32 pounds since the start of summer camp — are true. Guerrero, who can’t be blamed for believing in himself, sees things differently.
“Right after the season ended I told them I played first base this year, but next year the third base is mine,” Guerrero told Dominican journalist Yancen Pujols in comments that initially received attention on Reddit and were later translated by Sportsnet. “I’m already improving my skills as a third baseman. I still have my first baseman’s mitts out there in case one day I have to play first base or if in a game something happens and I have to be moved to first base, but I’m going back to my position, which is third base.”
Guerrero used the weight loss as proof he is serious about third base. He pointed to the success of San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. and Washington’s Juan Soto and correlated it with their off-season workout routines. Guerrero said he learned how important it is to put in the work away from the field and was thankful he realized it at such an early age.
That will be music to the Blue Jays’ ears. Guerrero worked hard at third base, but he needed to put just as much effort into his body. Toronto should be overjoyed its middle-of-theorder bat finally got the message and dedicated himself to the craft, right? Well, yes and no.
The problem with Guerrero’s claim is that we’ve been down this road before. The quotes are eerily similar to the ones he uttered a year ago, when Guerrero admitted fatigue was an issue and his routines needed to be improved. If there was a positive to be found in Guerrero’s first-year struggles, that was it. Guerrero was going to learn from his mistakes and get better because of them.
Throughout last off-season, the Jays spoke glowingly about his progress. Guerrero spent time at the club’s minor-league complex in Florida and regularly posted workout videos from his home in the Dominican Republic. Much was made of his new look and while there was a difference in spring training, the hype seemed overblown. He appeared healthier, not noticeably transformed.
Then the pandemic hit, and
Guerrero went back to his old habits. Guerrero reported to summer camp overweight a few months later and the move to first — not expected for at least another year or two — was expedited. The Jays said they wanted to take some pressure off Guerrero, but an underlining insinuation was skepticism about his physical ability to handle the position.
“When they moved me to first base, they did it because they didn’t want me to struggle that much,” Guerrero told Pujols. “You know in 2018, I had an injury in one of my knees and they’re scared of that. And that’s the reason they moved me to first base.”
Except that’s not true. Injuries were one reason Guerrero changed positions, but there were others, too. It’s important to remember that, while Guerrero struggled at first base, he was an even bigger liability at third. In 2019, Guerrero’s minus-9 defensive runs ranked ahead of only Boston’s Rafael Devers and Pittsburgh’s Colin
Moran. His minus-16 outs above average were last. In 94 starts, Guerrero committed 17 errors. Health is just one part of this story.
The Jays must tread carefully here. They can’t completely dismiss the idea of putting Guerrero at third because Toronto doesn’t know what moves it will make next, it might be required. Equally important, shutting down Guerrero’s ambitions this early could have a negative impact on his motivation to report next spring in top shape.
It should prove harder to upgrade first base than any other infield position this off-season. Star players often get their way, but Guerrero hasn’t earned that right through his play.
He lost the right to choose positions this summer and now it’s Toronto’s front office and coaching staff who should be making the call. The Blue Jays will add at whatever position they can.