We have accomplished a lot, and now we need to do more
A new report published by the Innovation Policy Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School shows that, overall, Canadians have made remarkable changes to their behaviour in order to reduce the risk of disease transmission. But the analysis points to a sobering fact: It’s unlikely that Canadians are going to be able to achieve greater gains on COVID-19 this fall and winter through the kind of broad shutdowns that we endured in the spring. The study suggests that Canadians have hit something of a floor in average proximity between people, which is what broad shutdowns mostly influence.
The report uses smartphone location data from the Data for Good program at Cuebiq, a marketing analytics firm, to estimate the mobility and proximity of Canadians since the beginning of 2020. It shows that the character of our mobility has changed. Traffic through Canada’s seven largest international airports is way down compared to the beginning of the year. For example, activity at Vancouver International Airport is only about 40 per cent what it was on Jan. 1. The percentage is significantly higher in Ottawa and Montreal, but none of the seven airports have recovered to wintertime levels. At the same time, there has been a rebound in ground travel between most closely located areas, such as Ottawa and Gatineau. Canadian mobility has recovered mainly through local ground activity rather than through air travel.
Interestingly, we have accomplished a rebound in mobility without the same level of rebound in proximity. In the study, proximity is the degree to which our smartphones interact with those of others. Back in February, a typical Torontonian came in contact with between seven and nine people per hour on an average weekday.
By mid-April, that had dropped to fewer than three people. After a small rebound in May and early June, our proximity again dropped and we have continued to interact with about three people per hour per weekday. This pattern of reductions is seen in all 30 of Canada’s most populated census divisions, with some important variations.
Achieving mobility without a dramatic increase in average proximity is remarkable. Canadians are demonstrating a willingness and capability to manage risks. There are notorious exceptions, of course, but Canadians have a lot to be proud of.
So what is needed now? Three things leap to mind.
The first is a celebration of our accomplishments to date that reinforces the need for continued physical distancing. We cannot expect to contain the pandemic it we allow our proximity to drift back up to the levels of spring 2020. Wearing masks, staying apart, interacting outdoors and frequent handwashing are more important than ever.
The second is taking steps to target outbreaks using the best tools available. This means deploying rapid testing, contact tracing, advanced analytics, PPE and medical equipment in specific situations where infection risk is greatest. For example, we can help contain the spread by reconfiguring business to minimize interactions between people, and by rewarding essential work with more resources. And by using sophisticated digital modelling techniques, we can identify hotspot risks in advance and intervene.
Thirdly, we need innovative ways to support safer interactions. For example, warmed outside spaces may be safer places than private homes. Some large, public indoor spaces shuttered during the pandemic may be safer places for small gatherings, if appropriately scheduled and distanced. Government-supported temporary housing could be made available to family members of COVID-positive patients. And self-reporting of symptoms could be made easier.
So, Canada: Well done! Now let’s do more.
We have accomplished a rebound in mobility without the same level of rebound in proximity