Biden’s win will help — and harm — Canada
Friendlier relationship will be offset by policies on trade and pipeline
WASHINGTON— tory election in the will U.S. be Joe celebrated presidential Biden’s vic- by many Canadians who have been holding their breath (and ripping out their hair) throughout Donald Trump’s tumultuous term — but a Biden administration will upset the plans of other Canadians. Here are some things his win down south means for people up north.
A sigh of relief. A Pew Research survey of global attitudes under to Trump, the U.S. Canadian showed opin- that ions have reached an all-time low, and Ekos research found a strong majority of Canadians felt as if the U.S. was on the verge of chaos and only a change of president would help avert it.
Now that change has come — no doubt reassuring some who felt their southern neighbours had turned into the stranger next door.
More cordial relations. Through term, his served cabinet the and Trump’s prime cordial maintained minister posture turbulent a and re- as Trump sometimes threw insults or threats their way. Most experts expect a warmer rela- tionship between Biden — who has spoken glowingly of Canada as a partner — and his administration and the crew in Ottawa.
The governments won’t be aligned on everything, and will certainly be opposed on some things, but the tone will likely be more consistently friendly.
The prospect of beginning to ease border restrictions. Not right away — not with COVID-19 waves surging in both countries. But Biden’s promise of a science-based new approach may inspire faith among Canadians that if numbers start coming down, a phased approach to lifting border barriers may be worth some discussion.
The end of the Keystone XL Pipeline? For Canada’s oil industry, and the provincial and federal economic hopes tied to it, the new pipeline to the U.S. has offered hope of a stable market for some time to come.
Biden says he’ll kill the pipeline right away. Governments in Ottawa and Alberta will need to do some high-wire lobbying, or heavy redrafting of economic plans
Not as much difference in trade policy as you might think. Trump loved tariffs, and loved springing them on the world by tweet or tantrum. Bi- den is likely to be a more predictable partner, but his Democratic caucus has protectionist instincts and he’s a fan of “buy American” A policy.
The possibility that the U.S. can be a Safe Third Country we can agree with. The Trump administration’s treatment of asylum seekers led to a flood of irregular refugees aat the Canadian border, and to t the Supreme Court ruling our pact with the U.S. on refugees unconstitutional. Biden’s promises to accept more asylum seekers and dramatically overhaul their treatment offer t the prospect of a partnership on refugee policy we may be able to live with. á An easing of fears of the rise of Trumpism in Canadian politics. There’s a simple calculus: what works in elections in the U.S. is likely to get adopted in Canada. The nationalism, populism and misinformation tactics of Trump’s campaigns and government will look less attractive to Canadian politicians now that they’ve been defeated — for now, anyway. w
Revitalized multinational institutions that allow Canada to thrive in the world.
Trump’s withdrawal from international institutions that helped Canada thrive created an identity crisis for a country whose power has always been soft.
Biden offers a restoration of U.S. participation and leader- ship in organizations such as tthe World Trade Organization, t the World Health Organization and the UN.
A less complicated relationship overall with our big
gest and closest friend. Politically, economically, culturally, Canada has always seen the U.S. as a partner and friend. Many Canadians who saw the U.S. leaning toward authoritarianism and isolationism didn’t recognize the ally they thought they knew.
Cleaner air, water and en
ergy. Trump repealed pollution controls that protected shared water, air and forests, and withdrew from international climate change efforts. Biden’s relatively robust climate and environmental policies — and commitment to green energy — offer the prospect of a better shared environment, and a partner in climate change agreements if Canadians are willing to join them.