Worth a shot, if price is right
The Jays have what it takes to trade for Lindor. But there’s a limit
The best all-around player available this off-season won’t be found in free agency, but instead via trade. This is shaping up to be the winter of Francisco Lindor and the Blue Jays are almost guaranteed to be in on the four-time all-star. The question is, until what price point?
Reports have been indicating for months that the cashstrapped Cleveland Indians intend to trade their franchise player this winter.
With Lindor eligible for free agency after 2021 and the club lacking the resources to sign him long-term, the decision likely has already been made to move on.
According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Indians began informing teams about Lindor’s availability this past week. The Jays were one of four potential landing spots mentioned alongside the New York Mets, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels. Other teams will be added in the coming weeks, with negotiations expected to stretch deep into the off-season.
The dilemma isn’t whether the Jays should take a run at Lindor. Obviously, they should. He’s coming off a down season, but he is a franchise-altering player who has two Gold Gloves, a pair of Silver Sluggers and three top-10 finishes in MVP voting on his resumé. He’s one of the most exciting infielders in the game and the only reason he’ll be traded is money.
Toronto has the prospect capital to make a deal happen and should have the money, too. Lindor is projected to earn upwards of $22 million (U.S.) in his final year of arbitration, a figure the Jays could absorb with a payroll that currently sits at $75 million to $80 million, including non-guaranteed contracts and left-hander Robbie Ray’s new one-year deal worth $8 million. For context, the 2020 payroll hovered around $112 million, including $14 million owed to Troy Tulowitzki.
But just because the Jays can afford Lindor doesn’t mean they should empty their wallets to make it happen.
This will have to be a pursuit with limits, and if it leads to a second-place finish so be it. The goal should be trying to take advantage of a depressed market to acquire a star player at a reasonable cost.
What the Jays can’t afford to do is mortgage too much of the future when there are still other areas that need to be addressed.
This isn’t the NBA where the Raptors can acquire Kawhi Leonard and ride him all the way to a championship. It’s not even the NHL where a hot goalie can steal a round of the playoffs.
Baseball works differently and it’s almost impossible for one man to take over the sport, despite Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena’s best efforts this fall.
Acquiring Lindor for prospects would make the Jays a lot better on paper, but they would still need at least one more top-end starter, potentially another back-end piece, an everyday centre-fielder and a reliable arm or two for the bullpen.
Lindor does a lot, but he can’t do it all. The Jays must maintain flexibility both in terms of prospects to trade and cash to spend on future upgrades. Otherwise, what’s the point?
There are two scenarios at play here: a team makes an offer without any guarantees that Lindor — 27 next Saturday — will stick around long term, or a club reaches a verbal agreement with Cleveland and is granted permission to work out a long-term contract before the trade is finalized. The first option will be expensive, the second will cost even more.
The Jays shouldn’t be prepared to give up a whole lot for one year of Lindor. If Cleveland could be swayed by a package that includes prospects such as Alek Manoah, Orelvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch or Ryan Borucki — and maybe, just maybe, Jordan Groshans — then by all means have at it. The signature guys, though? No thanks, and that’s probably what it would take.
The conversation is different if there’s a sense Lindor is open to a long-term deal Toronto deems acceptable. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson would still be off limits. Top prospects Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Alejandro Kirk should be, too.
The rest? That’s up for debate. The Jays would have to think long and hard before moving someone like Cavan Biggio, but depending on the package he’s not someone who should be immediately ruled out. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could be used as a chip, Jordan Romano too, and Groshans would be a lock to enter the conversation.
The framework is a complete guessing game until proposals are exchanged, which could happen as early as Monday’s virtual meetings among general managers. More realistically, talks won’t become serious for another month as teams prefer to get a feel for the free-agent market before diving too deep into trades.
Mookie Betts is the most recent comparable. In February, the Red Sox sent the former MVP and David Price to the Dodgers for outfielder Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and infielder Connor Wong. At the time, Verdugo was one year removed from being ranked the No. 35 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. Downs entered this year ranked 44th.
That was a high price for what could have been one year of Betts, but clearly worth it after the Dodgers signed him to an extension and went on to win the World Series. The Jays aren’t far enough along in their development to justify a similar risk, but they’re getting there.
The Jays shouldn’t be considered the favourites in this chase, but if the Mets struggle to come up with enough trade assets, the Yankees decide their resources are better allocated elsewhere and the Angels determine they’ve spent enough already, Toronto could become the unlikely winner.
A trade for Lindor makes all the sense in the world but only if the cost is within reason. If not, there’s no shame in walking away from the table and going the free-agent route instead.