Coup or false? Some see dangerous endgame in Trump’s lies
“This is a full-scale emergency — and yet the Democratic strategy seems to be to try to pretend it isn’t happening.” DAVID SIROTA FORMER BERNIE SANDERS ADVISER
WASHINGTON— If I were writing from anywhere else in the world, you might expect to read something like this:
“American strongman President Donald Trump arrived late for a brief, wordless appearance at a Veterans Day memorial service Wednesday, one of the few times in the past week he has left the fortified and fenced-off presidential palace in the coastal capital of this fiercely divided, nuclear-armed nation where he is trying to deny election results to maintain control.
“The election, in which Trump suffered the most lopsided loss by an incumbent president since 1932, was declared fair by elections officials in every state and by international observers. Still, the bombastic president continues to proclaim unfounded allegations of widespread fraud against him, and has launched a scattershot series of lawsuits. ‘People will not accept this Rigged Election!’ Trump tweeted Wednesday, before retweeting another statement from a day earlier: ‘We will win!’
“One of his appointees has refused to issue the recognition of Democratic president-elect Joe Biden’s victory that would allow preparation for a peaceful transition to begin. This week, Trump fired several senior administration officials, including the defence secretary, and replaced them with close political allies. Administration officials have told departmental staff to continue preparation for his second-term budget. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the U.S. government’s most senior diplomat, said his department is preparing for a ‘smooth transition to a second Trump administration.’
“‘What Donald Trump is attempting to do has a name: coup d’état. Poorly organized though it might seem, it is not bound to fail. It must be made to fail,’ tweeted Yale University historian
Timothy Snyder, the author of the book ‘On Tyranny.’ ”
All of that is true. But North Americans are not used to reading that kind of description of the American government, written in the way foreign reporting from overseas often is. It became a common gimmick among commentators in the U.S. under Trump to format stories that way to allow the shocking elements of what is taking place here show through. As an actual foreign correspondent, I figured I might as well try it.
But what the technique doesn’t necessarily illuminate is whether Trump’s strategy is likely to succeed. We’re familiar with how U.S. government works, and how strange the situation is now. How concerned should Canadians watching their neighbour be about some kind of attempted coup taking place?
For his part, Biden has been carrying on as if there’s not much to worry about. “I just think it’s an embarrassment, quite frankly,” Biden said Tuesday of Trump’s refusal to concede. “We’re already beginning the transition. We’re well underway.”
A former U.S. ambassador to Canada, Bruce Heyman, reflected a similarly sentiment Wednesday. “I’m not overly concerned. Yet.”
But not everyone is so sanguine. “This is a full-scale emergency — and yet the Democratic strategy seems to be to try to pretend it isn’t happening, in hopes that norms win out, even though nothing at all is normal,” David Sirota, a former Bernie Sanders campaign adviser, wrote in his newsletter, calling on Democrats to mobilize.
I asked Scott Anderson, an expert on American governance at the Brookings Institution, how likely Trump’s strategy is to work in helping him hold on to power. “It’s concerning, but it’s not at a crisis point yet,” he said. He was speaking specifically about the government official failing to allow a formal transition to begin, but the sentiment summed up much of his analysis of the overall situation.
“You can’t say it’s impossible,” he said of the “outlandish” scenarios in which Trump might keep Biden from assuming office, but none appeared probable. Trump’s claims of widespread fraud rest on “completely fabricated grounds,” and his legal cases stand little chance in court. Trump would need to prove large enough fraud to overcome Biden’s margin of victory — and succeed in doing so in at least three separate states. Failing that, he would need to somehow delay or disrupt the process to such a degree that the election is thrown to Congress to decide, a result that even if successful might ultimately result in Democrat Nancy Pelosi or Pompeo temporarily taking office. “I don’t think Trumpworld is fighting for that particular outcome,” he said.
Anderson did not think the moves at the U.S. Department of Defense looked like they were setting the stage for a military coup, and looked even less like they would be successful at it if that was their intention. “I think a lot of that, at this point, is just bluster.”
To what end? Maryscott Greenwood of the Canadian-American Business Council, who works regularly with members of Congress, said she thinks much of the effort is about helping motivate Republican voters for the Georgia runoff elections, scheduled for January, that will determine control of the Senate. “I think it’s not about (Trump’s) race, his race is over. It’s about, can the Republicans hold on to the Senate? And, you know, can these machinations help?”
Others speculate that the entire crying-fraud tactic — described by a White House insider to NBC News Wednesday as “theatrics” — will simply allow Trump to leave office without admitting defeat, the better to retain influence over his voters and the Republican party, and set up an ongoing career as a media political personality and potential 2024 candidate or kingmaker.
That theory rests on Trump’s determination to have a large chunk of the American public continue believing an election was stolen, and that American democracy is fraudulent.
“The real issue is the grievous harm he is causing to public trust in America’s constitutional system,” Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton wrote in the Washington Post on Wednesday. “For the good of America, the 2020 election needs to be brought expeditiously to the conclusion that all logic tells us is coming.”