Ryu’s debut solid, but next year is key
The Blue Jays knew they were taking a risk last off-season when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu to a four-year deal. So far, the gamble appears to be paying off.
October’s post-season disappointment notwithstanding, the Jays must be pleased with their early return on investment. Ryu finished his first season in the American League ranked second in WAR (3.0), fourth in ERA (2.69) and 10th in innings (67). Those are the numbers $20 million (U.S.) per season are supposed to buy and often don’t.
Of last year’s prominent free-agent starters — Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner — Ryu was the only one to finish in the top three in voting for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s Cy Young Award. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber was the AL’s unanimous winner, but Ryu picked up four second-place votes and finished third in the results announced Wednesday night.
Ryu’s resumé got better with a second consecutive top-three finish in Cy Young voting. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins improved his too by netting a positive return from the largest financial commitment his ball club ever made to a free agent. The first year was a win-win for both sides, though it probably won’t have much bearing on how this contract is viewed several years down the road.
That’s because the Jays’ decision to sign Ryu was never really about 2020, it was about what he would bring to the table in 2021 and beyond, when the team was more prepared to contend. At the time of Ryu’s deal, it was also about taking advantage of a deep pool of high-end free-agent starters, one year before so few were set to become available.
At the end of 2019, the Jays had a promising young core of position players and almost no quality pitching at the bigleague level. It was apparent that, before they could think about advancing the rebuild, the starting rotation had to be addressed and not all the solutions would be found internally.
The Blue Jays craved a prominent piece, someone with the track record and upside to be considered an ace. Atkins had the money from ownership and a desire to spend it. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, the timing could not have been much better, there were several free-agent starters who fell into the top-tier category and only so many teams willing to pay for them.
Cole got the attention of the Yankees, Strasburg re-signed with the Nationals, the Phillies were focused on Wheeler, and the Dodgers were preoccupied with Mookie Betts. As reportedly the only team willing to go four years, Ryu practically fell into the Blue Jays’ laps.
Guaranteeing $80 million was dangerous considering Ryu had nine stints on the injured list over the previous six years. Health was — and will continue to be — a concern. But it was a shot the Blue Jays had to take because they needed to get upside from somewhere and, outside of Trevor Bauer, who picked up the NL Cy Young Award on Wednesday, there weren’t any No. 1 starters scheduled to be up for grabs the following winter.
Adding Ryu didn’t come close to solving all the pitching issues. Despite his impressive numbers, Jays starters ranked 27th in MLB with a 4.55 ERA and 27th with 255 1⁄3 innings in 2020. They still need another front-line starter, but the addition of Ryu and the arrival of prospect Nate Pearson means at least they aren’t as desperate as they were before. Atkins doesn’t need to overhaul an entire staff, he just needs to find one high-end piece.
Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Ryu’s deal to go sideways. The 33-year-old appeared to tire down the stretch and durability will remain a concern. Ryu’s velocity could continue to diminish, and he might have trouble adjusting. There are no guarantees, that’s the price of doing business in free agency, but at least the Jays started spending one year too early instead of one year too late.
With Ryu in tow and aided by MLB’s decision to expand the post-season format, the Jays’ rebuild moved ahead of schedule. Meaningful baseball returned and the new No. 1 starter was one of the reasons Toronto locked down a spot. Maybe that’s why it’s easier to overlook the Jays’ shortcomings in the opening round against Tampa Bay.
Ryu was downright awful against the Rays but by the time he took the mound, his team was already down a game in a series few expected them to win. This post-season run was more geared toward gaining experience for future years than it was about making a legitimate run at a World Series title. Mistakes were more forgivable this time around, even for the veterans.
The Korean just helped ensure that the series ended with a bang, for all the wrong reasons. The Rays hit Ryu hard, early and often, en route to seven runs on eight hits and a walk across 1 2⁄3 innings.
There wasn’t anything acelike about the performance and his poor showing meant the game was over mere moments after the first pitch was thrown.
If that happens again next year, it will be an issue. But 2020 was a warm-up for the Blue Jays in a lot of ways, a taste of things to come. They can only hope the same can be said about Ryu because while the debut was great, the encore is much more important.