Many questions just eight months out
Still few details about how Games will proceed in middle of a pandemic
TOKYO—We’re at the halfway point. The Tokyo Olympics were postponed eight months ago, and now are to open in eight months: July 23, 2021. Crunch time is coming.
Tokyo organizers and International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach have spoken vaguely about how the Games can take place in the midst of a pandemic. Plans and dozens of scenarios have been drawn up about COVID-19 countermeasures: possible quarantines, vaccines, safe distancing, and making the Athletes’ Village a safe “bubble environment.”
These ideas will have to become concrete solutions. Hanging in the balance are 11,000 Olympic athletes and 4,400 Paralympians. The IOC depends on the these Games, since 91 per cent of its revenue is from selling TV rights and sponsorships.
Here are some questions and answers about where the Olympics stand on several fronts.
Bach was in Tokyo this week and said vaccines and rapid testing are on the horizon. Will athletes be required to take a vaccine to compete? Bach says “no.” But athletes and any official or fan going to Japan will be under pressure to get vaccinated. Officials are suggesting athletes will not face a 14-day quarantine after entering Japan.
IOC vice-president John Coates said the IOC and national committees will be looking for “role models” among athletes to encourage vaccination. Bach says health-care workers are a priority for the vaccine ahead of athletes. IOC officials have also suggested vaguely that the Switzerland-based body will pick up some of the vaccination costs. As is often the case, there has been nothing specific.
Will fans be allowed into venues?
We still don’t know. Bach says he expects a “reasonable” number of fans to be able to attend events. There is still no decision announced on allowing thousands of fans from abroad to attend.
There is pressure on the operating budget to allow as many fans as possible. The budget foresees $800 million in revenue from ticket sales — the third-largest income item. Japan has been successful holding sports events with some fans, at times at capacity levels of 70 to 80 per cent.
How many athletes have already qualified?
Officials say 57 per cent of the slots are full. So many have not yet qualified, and many qualifying events have been scrapped by the pandemic. It’s clear athletes in some countries have a better chance to train than others. This could leave an uneven playing field and could also force some slots in the Olympics to be awarded without a traditional qualifying event. Who is paying for the delay and the rising costs?
The IOC, organizers and local politicians seldom talk about the costs. Japan says it is officially spending $12.6 billion (U.S.) to organize the Olympics. But a government audit last year said it was twice that. All but $5.6 billion is public money. Over and above this, the delay is reported in Japan to cost $2 billion to $3 billion. No one in authority has offered an official number. The IOC has said it will chip in about $650 million toward the delay but has given few specifics. A University of Oxford study says these are the most expensive Summer Olympics on record.
What’s the COVID-19 situation in Japan?
Better than most places, but infection cases are rising. About 2,000 people are reported to have died from COVID-19 in Japan, in a population of about 125 million. New cases in Tokyo on Thursday topped 500 for the first time.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga says the country is on “maximum alert.” This surge is not likely to convince an already skeptical population that the Olympics are a safe and sensible idea.