Situation ‘fragile’ as case rate begins to level off
Ontario health officials fear holiday season could lead to increased spread
The number of COVID-19 cases appears to be flattening, but Ontario remains in a “precarious” state where infections could take off again, health officials warn.
At the steady pace of the last three days the province should stay around 1,500 new infections daily to the end of December, but that could spike to 9,000 if growth rates return to the five per cent seen before the lockdown.
“It’s difficult to determine right now whether we are seeing a turnaround,” Dr. Adalsteinn Brown of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health said Thursday in presenting the latest computer modelling on the virus.
“We have not really turned a corner yet … we are in a very fragile situation,” he added. “We’re not modelling a decrease in cases right now.”
Health officials are concerned the coming holiday season could lead to an increase in social gatherings — despite warnings for Ontarians to keep to their own households — and a
jump in cases.
The outlook is an improvement, however, from the last modelling two weeks ago that forecast Ontario would hit 6,500 new cases daily by mid-December if action was not taken.
But challenges persist. There were 48 new outbreaks in workplaces, nursing homes and other locations in the last day, “one of the highest I can recall,” said Dr. Dirk Huyer, chief of provincial out-
break response.
Ontario’s chief medical officer said the seven-day moving average of cases has reached 1,427, up four per cent from last Thursday and near its all-time high.
“It could go either way,” Dr. David Williams said after the province reported 1,478 new cases Thursday, including 572 in Peel, 356 in Toronto and 111 in York Region.
“We can’t let our guard down.” He signalled no other health units will join Toronto and Peel in lockdown under the province’s framework for business openings on Friday, but said some health units may move up in restriction levels.
Williams, who was due to retire in February, saw his contract extended to September by a vote of MPPs in the legislature despite objections from opposition members who wanted him to appear before an all-party committee to face questions on his handling of the pandemic.
Deputy NDP Leader Sara Singh said her party has “serious concerns about what has happened here in this province” with cases skyrocketing since September and questions on whether the government imposed restrictions quickly enough.
The latest data showed community spread of COVID-19 remains high in Toronto, with public health officials unable to trace the source of the virus in 70 per cent of cases.
Peel showed an improvement in case positivity rates, dropping to 10 per cent from 12 a couple of weeks ago, but death rates continue increasing in nursing homes across the board. There have been at least 64 fatalities in the last week and 328 residents have died since Aug. 1.
With new infections continuing to pile up, hospitalizations have increased 63 per cent in the last four weeks and the number of patients requiring intensive care is expected to top 200 soon under any scenario.
That will continue to force a reduction in non-emergency surgeries that begins once ICU levels hit 150 patients, Brown said, noting access to care remains “well below” 2019 levels because of the number of COVID-19 patients.
The Ontario Medical Association asked people to follow pandemic precautions. “If every single one of us doesn’t do our part, things could get even worse as we enter the holiday season,” said Dr. Samantha Hill, president of the OMA. She called for better testing, contact tracing and isolation of people with COVID-19 to help stop the spread.
The number of people requiring hospital care for the virus rose by 33 in Thursday’s Ministry of Health report to 556 patients, with 151 in ICU and105 of them requiring ventilators to breathe. The high level of community spread is also fuelling cases in nursing homes, where another 60 residents and 14 staff have become infected, with nine resident deaths in the last day.