We’re in recession, Canadians believe

Most people pessimistic about economy, but feel good about personal finances, survey finds

Four out of five Canadians believe the country is still in recession and most fear the pandemic- fuelled malaise could last for years, a new poll finds.

Pollara Strategic Insights’ annual economic outlook survey paints a gloomy overall picture, but people appear remarkably bullish about their own personal finances.

Some 81 per cent of respondents said Canada remains in an economic recession — even though the economy grew in the third quarter of 2020 — with just nine per cent saying things are growing and 10 per cent had no opinion.

Of those who feel the recession is ongoing, 48 per cent said the downturn could last one to two years while 20 per cent said it could be even longer. Onethird — 32 per cent — said the “economy is in a state of severe recession.”

“Recessions do have a lasting psychological impact on people,” Pollara president Craig Worden said Monday. “Canadians are expecting the worst and preparing themselves for it.”

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter- overquarter economic growth, so technically Canada emerged from recession in the third quarter of last year when gross domestic product surged by 8.9 per cent.

Despite their concerns, most Canadians said their own personal finance situation is rosy.

More than half — 54 per cent — said they are “holding their own” financially with 20 per cent feeling they are actually getting ahead during the pandemic while 22 per cent said they are losing ground.

“It’s counterintuitive given the economic impact of COVID- 19,” Worden said.

“But consumer spending is down, we’re seeing higher savings rates, and there have been unprecedented income supports from the federal government, so many Canadians are seeing more cash in their bank accounts,” he said.

Canadians are feeling quite financially comfortable.”

Using three online panels, Pollara

surveyed 1,200 people across Canada on Dec. 18 through to 23. It is an opt- in poll, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The survey is Pollara’s 26th annual study of Canadians’ perceptions and expectations of the economy and their personal financial situation.

Respondents were asked to “click up to a maximum of four words that best describe the feelings you have about Canada’s economy.”

Almost two- thirds — 61 per cent — said “worried” while the second most common response, at 32 per cent, was “pessimistic.”

Thirty per cent said “sad,” 27 per cent said “upset” and 27 per cent said “resigned.”

However, 22 per cent said “optimistic,” 19 per cent said “calm” and 15 per cent said “confident.”

Around one in 10 — 11 per cent — said “bored” and 10 per cent said “ashamed.”

But five per cent said “proud” and five per cent said “inspired” with four per cent “happy,” and two per cent “excited” while nine per cent had no feelings about the economy.