Lockdown should remain, de Villa says

Toronto’s top doctor says more contagious variants could change pandemic

Toronto needs to remain in lockdown, even as the province moves to ease COVID-19 restrictions in regions with low case counts, the city’s medical officer of health said Monday.

“Today, we are in transition from one pandemic to another; a transition to a new pandemic,” said Dr. Eileen de Villa, speaking at a COVID-19 update from city hall.

“We are in a position of great uncertainty with respect to variants, but what we know is alarming.”

Earlier in the day, Premier Doug Ford unveiled plans to begin easing restrictions in the Belleville, Kingston and Renfrew areas on Wednesday, placing them in the green zone, which means gyms, movie theatres, hair salons and other businesses can reopen. The three areas have consistently experienced low case numbers.

The stay-at-home order will continue to apply to 28 public health regions until Feb. 16. Toronto, Peel and York regions are scheduled to remain in lockdown until at least Feb. 22.

“I understand the value of preparing for the time we can lift restrictions. From a public health perspective in Toronto, that time is not now,” said de Villa, adding that more contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus, which are circulating locally, have the potential to transform the pandemic.

She cited projections from the Centre for Disease Modelling at York University that, based on the high transmission rates seen in Toronto in mid- to late January, pegged the number of COVID-19 deaths in the city at 5,500 by May, more than double the current 2,516.

If transmission increased by 10 per cent, the model estimated the number of dead would rise to 9,200. If transmission increased by 20 per cent, the model pegged the number of dead at 15,865 in the same time period.

“COVID-19 and its mutant variations are out there, seeking a host through which to live and through which to spread to the next person, and the next person, and the next,” de Villa cautioned, adding that it’s important to accept the reality that COVID-19 has not gone away, and that lifting restrictions will not make it go away.

Asked how to square this information with the fact schools in Toronto are scheduled to reopen next week, de Villa said there are significant health benefits to children when they are able to learn in person.

“I know that we are very actively engaged with our school partners, to make sure we are doing the very best we can all together to reduce the likelihood of transmission within schools,” de Villa said.

“There are a number of lessons we learned over the course of the fall; lessons we’ve gleaned from other jurisdictions, and all of these are being applied so that we can maximize the benefits of in-person learning while at the same time, providing a safe environment for students and staff.”

While some parents are opposed to the idea of reopening schools, saying not enough safety measures have been put in place to protect students, staff and their families, others believe the benefit of getting children back into schools — where they can socialize and where children who are struggling at home can benefit from social services, including breakfast programs — far outweigh the danger of transmission of the virus.

Toronto’s emergency operations chief, Matthew Pegg, said that while the planning for vaccinating city residents remains underway, there is not enough vaccine supply to allow for reopening the Metro Toronto Convention Centre vaccination clinic or to open other clinic operations.

“So at this point in time, we are waiting,” Pegg said.

De Villa reported 421 new cases of COVID-19 in the city; 414 people in hospital, and 94 in ICU. Another 13 people have died. In mid-January, there were as many as 900-1,000 daily new cases.

De Villa added that with regard to data, the transition to the province’s system is now largely complete.