How other countries are tackling third wave of pandemic,

Experts warn against loosening restrictions as virus variants spread

As the government eases restrictions this week in three areas of the province, with more regions to follow, experts say there’s no question that Ontario will experience a third wave of COVID-19, most likely by April.

How bad the wave will be depends in part on how quickly the government responds to the predicted rise in new cases.

“Preventing a third wave is all about just reacting very quickly to increases in cases, and Ontario has shown that they’re not willing to react quickly,” said Dionne Aleman, a University of Toronto professor and expert in pandemic modelling. “And definitely not willing to react with appropriately strong measures. So a third wave will absolutely be inevitable.”

Other variables such as variants of the virus and the delayed rollout of vaccines could also play a part as we ease out of the current lockdown, which began provincewide on Jan. 14.

“You have to be very careful at this point right now with the variants emerging out into other countries like Canada, like the U.S. and even in the U.K. to some extent still,” said Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University. “It’s the increased transmissibility that makes reductions in restrictions a little bit more dangerous than we think, even if they’re just small reductions.”

Evans said cases of the virus in countries with the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant, which was first identified in the U.K., all followed a similar pattern once restrictions were lifted.

“If you reduce things and start reopening stuff while B.1.1.7 is floating around, it will just take off again. And then you get your, whatever you want to call it, third wave or resurgence of a second wave,” he said.

In Ontario, variants account for between five and 10 per cent of current cases, according to the province.

With schools set to reopen in hot spots like Toronto, York and Peel after Family Day, some experts are worried about what the more transmissible variant will mean for classrooms.

“On balance, I think it’s better to have schools open than closed,” said Jeff Kwong, the interim director of the Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, adding many experts believed that transmission among students, while wearing masks in class, was rare.

The belief is that transmission in school-age children mostly happened in households, he said, where a working family member contracted the illness and then brought it home, where it spread.

“I’m really nervous that with these new variants, things are going to be worse than with the original virus,” said Kwong, who added that if numbers start to rise again, the government could consider curfews and restrict travel within the province.

Aleman also said she is worried about kids going back to school in areas that are hot spots for the virus and that if officials don’t react quickly to rising case counts, even more strenuous lockdown measures may be necessary, as has happened in other countries.

Evans said a recent study out of the U.K., which has yet to be peer reviewed, showed that closing schools, along with all of the other restrictions, was what finally got the B.1.1.7 variant under control.

We take a look at four countries where tough measures were taken to contain a third wave of the virus.

Ireland

At the peak of its third wave of COVID-19, Ireland had more than 8,000 cases on a single day, far outstripping case numbers in its first and second waves.

To try to control the pandemic, the entire country entered Level 5 restrictions on Dec. 30, and officials said the measures would be implemented until March 5, in all more than nine weeks.

The Level 5 restrictions include a stay-at-home order. Schools are closed, there is no curbside pickup from non-essential businesses, non-essential construction has been stopped and visitors are not allowed in private homes or gardens. Visitors to the country are required to have a negative PCR test 72 hours before they enter.

The Netherlands

The country has been in lockdown since Dec. 15, shortly before the third wave of the virus peaked in late December, when more than 13,000 new cases were reported on a single day.

Initially slated to end on Jan. 19, the lockdown restrictions were extended to March 2. And on Jan. 23, the country implemented nightly curfews for the first time.

Cases declined but the government said it extended the lockdown because of the new variants. Non-essential stores are closed, although curbside pickup was allowed as of Feb. 10. Primary schools and child-care centres also opened this week.

Residents have been asked to work at home. One visitor per home is allowed each day, and in indoor or outdoor public spaces social groups can be no bigger than two, unless it’s for an event such as a wedding or funeral.

United Kingdom

England entered its latest lockdown on Jan. 6, which is expected to last until at least Feb. 22, when the government said it will make further announcements.

The national lockdown means residents can only leave their homes for essential reasons, such as exercise or education, and are supposed to stay in the area where they live. Although they can exercise with another person, they are not allowed to leave their homes to meet socially with anyone they do not live with.

In England, remote learning for students is in place until at least March 8.

In Scotland, lockdown restrictions will remain in place until the end of February although some primary students are being allowed back into class on Feb. 22, as part of a phased-in return to schools.

Meanwhile, travellers from Spain to England must present a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of travel and will be required to pay for two more tests during a 10-day isolation period. And as of Feb. 15, visitors from more than 30 other highrisk countries will be required to pay to self-isolate for 10 days in hotels.

“If you reduce things and start reopening stuff while B.1.1.7 is floating around, it will just take off again.” DR. GERALD EVANS CHAIR OF THE DIVISION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES AT QUEEN’S UNIVERSITY

Spain

Cases of the virus in Spain appear to be on the downswing of a third wave that peaked in late January, when nearly 94,000 cases were reported on a single day.

Genetic sampling done on cases of the virus in December identified the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, which accounted for more than 20 per cent of new cases in some regions of the country by late January.

The country entered a state of emergency at the end of October, which is expected to continue until at least May 9, and includes a nationwide curfew from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. Stores were closed and gatherings limited to six people from different households.