Leafs might pay for empty net
Re-signing Andersen could be only choice in the end.
It’s been a week for the firstplace Maple Leafs and their keenest supporters to again contemplate the future without Freddie Andersen.
All in all, it wasn’t too bad. Low-scoring Calgary didn’t exactly fill the Toronto net with pucks in two games. It was just that the personality of the Leafs seemed to shift a bit.
It’s a funny thing in hockey, how teams that aren’t as certain about the man between their pipes suddenly stop scoring. You could ask the Montreal Canadiens about that.
To be fair, Michael Hutchinson hung in there pretty well as Toronto’s No. 3 man pushed into the spotlight, particularly in a 2-1 come-from-behind victory over Calgary on Wednesday.
It was good to see Hutchinson get a win in a Leafs uniform. But no one would suggest he’s a No. 1 goalie.
Jack Campbell? Well, the glimpses have been too few to really know what level he can lift his game to, but at this point you couldn’t argue with much evidence that he would be an upgrade on Andersen, or even a suitable replacement. Joseph Woll may or may not be an NHL goalie. Again, you just don’t know.
It’s not that surprising to see an organization that has developed very few goaltenders over the past 30 years, other than Felix Potvin and James Reimer, in the position of not having a young replacement ready should their starting goalie ride off into the sunset of free agency this summer.
The Leafs aren’t alone. Edmonton and Calgary have had the same problem for some time. Same with Buffalo and Carolina. Vancouver believes it has Thatcher Demko poised to become a No. 1 goalie in the NHL, but isn’t 100 per cent sure yet. Ditto for Minnesota and Kaapo Kahkonen and Dallas with Jake Oettinger. Pittsburgh thought Tristan Jarry was locked and loaded to replace Matt Murray, but it hasn’t quite turned out that way.
Tricky business, goaltending. Washington thought former first-round pick Ilya Samsonov would be their man this season, but a variety of issues have limited his appearances and surprising 25-year-old draft pick Vitek Vanecek has shouldered the load. So, as it turns out, the Capitals had not one but two solid options inside the organization when Braden Holtby moved on last summer, and one of them has been able to do the job. The Leafs don’t have alternatives like that.
Could they replace the 31year-old Andersen with a free agent next summer, like they replaced Curtis Joseph with Ed Belfour 19 years ago? Possibly.
Of the netminders currently set to be out there this summer, Pekka Rinne, Jordan Binnington and Tuukka Rask could possibly provide an upgrade.
Rinne’s having a bounceback season on a mediocre Preds squad, but he’s 37 (same age Belfour was). Rask is 34. Binnington is only 27, but it’s hard to see the Blues letting him walk. Then again, Vancouver let Jacob Markstrom leave for Calgary as a free agent at age 30.
How free-agent goalies will perform in new cities is difficult to predict. Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky has not come close to giving value for his $10million (U.S.) cap hit. Holtby ($4.3 million) has been average with the leaky Canucks. Semyon Varlamov, meanwhile, has been very good behind a sturdy defensive team in Long Island since leaving Colorado in the summer of 2019.
So the Leafs, in theory, could upgrade the position. But they might not, and could spend a lot of money trying.
The way this season plays out will have much to do with Andersen’s future in Toronto. Another first-round ouster would be a disaster for the organization.
If the Leafs get out-goaltended — again — general manager Kyle Dubas may have little choice but to make a change in net.
Playing behind one of the top offences in hockey, Anderson has 11 wins, tied for the league lead, and he’d played the most minutes as of Friday. His save percentage, however, was 28th among netminders who have played at least seven games, and that’s behind a defensive shield that’s giving up the seventh-fewest shots on average per game. That’s a big team improvement from 19th last season.
In 16 starts, Andersen has only faced more than 30 shots on six occasions. Last season, he faced 30 or more in half his starts. So you can say he’s played a lot this season, but he’s been getting less work and his save percentage is down slightly. His numbers should be better for a $5-million cap hit.
That’s Andersen in a nutshell: big and durable, good enough for a very good team to win with, but not among the very best in the game. That’s who he’s been for his entire career.
Complicating any assessment is the fact all NHL teams are playing a sharply limited number of opponents in a tightly compacted schedule. Andersen might be the most consistent goalie in the North Division except for the Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck. But it’s not clear he’s in the top third of all NHL goalies. And this is one weird season to handicap.
Could you win a Stanley Cup with Andersen? Maybe if you score enough. Dallas got to the Cup final with Anton Khudobin last summer, a goalie three years older than Andersen who has played his best hockey since joining the Stars three years ago.
If you’re the Leafs, you’d like Andersen to be significantly better. Or you’d like to get someone significantly better.
The absence of an in-house replacement, however, may force the Leafs to re-sign him. As of now, they have no definite option.