What’s his plan, Tories wonder?
Conservative morale low as MPs await direction from O’Toole, sources say
OTTAWA—Erin O’Toole’s inner circle believes the Conservative party has a “brand problem” they need to counter to be competitive in the next federal election, sources tell the Star.
So the Conservative leader is once again reintroducing himself to Canadians in a major advertising campaign that attempts to contrast O’Toole with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
“Do you know who this is? Probably not. He’s no celebrity,” the advertisement voice-over goes.
“Just someone who’s in it for Canada. Not for headlines. Just Erin.”
The question for the Conservatives is whether “Just Erin” is enough — and whether anyone is listening amid a generational public health and economic crisis to what the opposition leader has to say.
At the same time, O’Toole is battling forces within his own party as he attempts to slap together a policy platform that explains to Canadians why they’d be better off under Conservative rule.
And three separate sources told the Star that morale within the party’s caucus is low, with MPs anxious to be told what, exactly, O’Toole’s plan is.
All of this is likely to come to a head at the party’s virtual policy convention next month. The social conservative wing of the party has been working diligently to get their fellow travellers selected as delegates, and so gain a say in the party’s policy direction.
How effective they’ve been in their mission is not known. But two sources told the Star that they anticipate a sizable minority of delegates are committed social conservatives — enough to potentially tip the scales in policy votes.
This is the narrative pretty much every time the Conservative party gathers for a convention. Division within the party, so-cons rabble rousing, a grumpy caucus, and lingering questions about the leader’s hold over the rank and file.
But this time, there is good reason to believe that narrative.
O’Toole and the Conservatives are lagging in the national polls. But more concerning for the Conservatives, the party seems to be failing to make inroads in crucial electoral regions — specifically Ontario and Quebec.
The Conservative leader has been at the helm for six months, but those close to him acknowledge that Canadians don’t know who he is. Andrew Scheer, the party’s former leader deposed after a disappointing 2019 election, had more than two years to introduce himself to Canadians.
Nobody within the Conservative movement thinks O’Toole has that much time. A source close to O’Toole said the party is preparing for a spring election.
But the Conservative caucus remains largely in the dark about what pitch O’Toole intends to take into that election. The party has put forward little in terms of policy over the last six months. But the trial balloons O’Toole has floated — a robust environmental policy, support for private sector unions and medium-term deficit spending, bringing back manufacturing jobs lost to globalization — are raising eyebrows within the party.
One MP told the Star that the Erin O’Toole of the last six months is not the “true blue” Conservative he branded himself as during the leadership.
“What is our platform? What are we doing?,” the MP, who agreed to talk about the mood in caucus on the condition they not be named, said.
“By now … we should really be knowing, as a caucus, what we’re running on. And I think the challenge is he had a platform in the leadership that he’s largely shedding right now.”
A source close to O’Toole dismissed that, saying the MPs that are most concerned are the ones who win elections with sizable majorities — that is, Western MPs in safe Conservative ridings.
Elements within the social conservative movement, meanwhile, feel marginalized after O’Toole turfed one of their standard bearers, MP Derek Sloan. Sloan has previously told the Star that he had been organizing to ensure social conservatives made up a significant portion of the delegates
The internal drama means O’Toole and his team have to keep eyes on caucus management and debates within the movement — as well as avoiding any embarrassments at the March policy convention — while preparing for a general election this year.
To that end, they’ve been extensively polling and running focus groups on what Canadians want from the Conservative party. One source said that Justin Bumstead, the pollster who played a key role in O’Toole’s surprise victory in the leadership race, has been collecting significant amounts of data to inform the Conservative strategy.
A second source said that while the party has made gains in the digital and data campaign game, they still believe they lag behind the Liberal party — whose historic 2015 election campaign was heavily datadriven.
That polling is almost certainly informing the party’s current PR push — trying to highlight O’Toole’s personality, his past military service and experience as a Bay Street lawyer. The ads contrast O’Toole’s life experience with what the Conservatives think about Trudeau — O’Toole is “not a celebrity,” “not in it for the headlines,” he’s “Just Erin.”
It remains to be seen whether “Just Erin” is enough for the Conservative party — or for the general public.
“I think the challenge is he had a platform in the leadership that he’s largely shedding right now.” CONSERVATIVE MP
ON LEADER ERIN O’TOOLE