Hernandez making decision easy
There have never been any doubts about Teoscar Hernandez’s upside. From the day he joined the Blue Jays, the raw talent was evident even to the untrained eye. The only debate was whether the free swinger with light-tower power would ever be able to tap into it on a consistent enough basis to become a reliable contributor, or better yet a perennial allstar.
During the early stages of Hernandez’s career, the Jays never knew what to expect. Was he the player who burst onto the scene in 2017 with eight home runs across 26 games as a September call-up? Or was he the guy who hit .229 with a paltry .728 OPS after May 1 of the following season?
In 2019, the confusion continued as Hernandez played so poorly he had to be demoted to the minors after hitting .189 over 39 games. When he returned in early June, Hernandez was back to being an elite power hitter with 23 home runs and a .548 slugging percentage the rest of the way. In a sport that is hard to predict at the best of times, Hernandez remained one of its biggest enigmas.
There are so many young stars in today’s game that it’s easy to forget baseball requires patience. Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna, Bo Bichette and others took the league by storm in their early 20s, but there are far more examples of guys who needed more time.
Josh Donaldson didn’t break out until his age-27 season. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were 29. Hernandez is right in the middle at 28.
That’s why the Jays have been so adamant about waiting this out, making sure no stone was left unturned in his development.
As the errors piled up and the number of strikeouts increased, there were calls in print and online for the organization to sever ties and move onto someone new. But when an athlete has this much talent, this much power, there are benefits to taking things slow.
The Jays were rewarded for that approach last year when Hernandez broke out with a team-leading 16 home runs while hitting .289 with a .919 OPS. With most of the focus on the young trio of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Cavan Biggio, Hernandez quietly became the Jays’ most valuable hitter and was rewarded with a Silver Slugger award, handed out annually to the best offensive player at each position.
Now it’s up to Hernandez to do it all over again, this time with a much bigger sample size. Because for as good as he was last season, he has yet to produce over a full 162-game schedule.
Since June 5, 2019, Hernandez is batting .265 with 39 home runs and 84 RBIs in 136 games. That’s a full season’s worth of work, but spanned two calendar years.
His recent success is at least partially related to improved plate discipline. He still chases pitches, and probably always will, but some minor adjustments went a long way. His overall swing percentage decreased 0.9 per cent from 2019 with the biggest difference coming on pitches inside the zone, down 9.8 per cent.
Hernandez discovered not all strikes are worth going after, especially early in counts.
“Before, I swung a lot,” Hernandez said during a Zoom availability before Sunday’s pre-season opener against the New York Yankees. “Last year, my swing percentage was still high, but I took a lot of pitches. I was putting a lot of effort into that, to take more pitches than I usually take, and trying to look for one spot in the strike zone and stay with it. I think that’s the change last year that made me better.”
The Jays have a crowded outfield, with four players for three starting spots.
George Springer represented a clear upgrade and yet his arrival made things more complicated for the guys who were already here. In theory, Hernandez could get caught up in the numbers game, but after last year’s performance he should be immune to those concerns.
Hernandez will be in the lineup on a regular basis. He just doesn’t know where those at-bats will be coming from. He’s preparing to play right field, where he will receive competition from Randal Grichuk. He’s also taking reps this spring in left, and at least some of his at-bats should be expected to come at designated hitter.
If Hernandez had his choice, he’d be starting in right. He openly admitted on Sunday that he doesn’t like DHing, but conceded he would have to adjust when called upon. The numbers back up his concerns with a career .188 average and .674 OPS at DH, but the sample size of 15 games is so small it’s barely worth a mention.
“Honestly, I don’t like it,” Hernandez said of the designated hitter role. “But if that’s the case, and I’m going to hit a lot at DH, I’m going to have to figure it out and try to produce for my team and for myself.”
That’s a refreshingly honest answer and one the Jays should take into consideration when designing their everyday lineup. After waiting several years for Hernandez to develop, the last thing this organization should be doing is messing with his routine just a few months removed from the best stretch of his career.
From this corner, it seems like an easy decision. The Jays should start Hernandez in right field and Rowdy Tellez at DH vs. right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, Hernandez can temporarily slot in at DH with Grichuk getting spot starts in right.
The Jays don’t need to overthink this. Keep it simple, just like Hernandez has been doing at the plate. If they do, more positive results should be on the way for the heart of the lineup in 2021.