Welcome to the budget pre-game show
Leaks, teases and announcements are a deliberate effort to shape the narrative ahead of release
You’re going to see a lot of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and other cabinet ministers in the next two weeks.
It is all part of a pre-game show meant to highlight major themes of the coming federal budget. It’s about setting the tone — empathetic, optimistic — and teasing out elements ahead of time in order to get more attention beyond the day-of document reveal.
It’s also a deliberate effort to shape the narrative for the coming weeks that this budget functions not just as an economic document, but as the launch of a new agenda for the government.
So get some popcorn. By the time Freeland stands to table the actual document in the House of Commons on April 16, we will all have seen the teasers, a trailer or two, and more than a few spoilers.
Wednesday’s spoiler alert: the plot of Budget 2024 will centre on millennial and gen-Z voters and their fretting parents who see a generation that has been priced out of the housing market and is being squeezed on all sides.
The budget will have other themes, of course. Senior government officials say it will address cost-of-living concerns of ordinary Canadians without sending out big cheques that would add to inflationary pressures and might risk a slowing of interest rate cuts the Bank of Canada may be pondering. That’s a top priority.
The budget will also set out a plan to goose economic growth and productivity while showing the Liberal government will hew to its key fiscal “anchor” — an ongoing decline in the ratio of debt-to-GDP, if not charting a path to a zero deficit, something the Trudeau government hasn’t done since it took power in 2015.
There have long been budget leaks from governments of all stripes. Often they’re aimed at getting a good headline or splash on the news, but rarely are they the bigger story of a government’s overall blueprint.
Consider the show that started Wednesday as a twist on Ottawa’s tried-and-true leak technique and more akin to how the Ontario government of Kathleen Wynne rolled out her budget planks, priming the audience in an attempt to tell that bigger story, and to frame the reception of what’s to come before the Opposition does.
But if Wednesday’s announcement was a curtain raiser on a plan the Trudeau government says will “build an economy that is fair for every generation,” its prologue borrowed heavily — in rhetoric if not in substance — from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative campaign for the hearts and votes of the young adult population.
In Vancouver, Trudeau said the fact “two-thirds of young people are now renters across the country” makes it imperative to help them now. “This is also about generational fairness — making sure millennials and gen-Z, who are most likely to rent, get a level playing field,” he said.
Poilievre has for months blamed Trudeau for thrusting young people into “housing hell” and promised a carrot-and-stick approach to require municipalities and provinces to build more homes, threatening to withhold federal money from those who fail to increase new housing units by 15 per cent a year.
Trudeau acknowledged young people see “a system that is stacked against them.” When asked to what extent his government bears responsibility for that, Trudeau did not offer a direct answer, but said “we’ve seen time and again international issues — whether it’s inflation or interest rates, or war or destabilized supply chains or a pandemic or climate change — knock young people about.”
Freeland out-empathized Trudeau in making a Poilievre-like appeal to young people, saying: “Your concerns are real. You’re not making it up. Your frustration is understandable. This isn’t your fault. And it doesn’t need to be your future.”
Like Poilievre, she promised the Liberals will “turbocharge” construction of new homes, and will “cut red tape” and reform zoning.
Trudeau said Ottawa will establish with provinces a “Canadian renters bill of rights” to require landlords to disclose a clear history of apartment prices so a would-be renter can bargain fairly. It would introduce a nationwide standard leasing agreement, provide $15 million for legal aid to help tenant protection organizations fight unfair rent increases, “renovictions” or “bad landlords.” Finally, Ottawa wants to require financial institutions to allow a renter’s history of timely rental payments count toward better credit scores when they go to get a mortgage.
Much of what Trudeau and Freeland promised will need federalprovincial co-operation. So will other measures Freeland said are already helping to ease cost-of-living pressures. The Liberals’ $10-aday daycare is saving families “thousands,” she said. But there are concerns there aren’t enough spaces or daycare workers to meet the demand. Expect the budget to address ways to do just that.
On Wednesday, she underscored the budget will do more to increase “investment” in “groundbreaking industries,” entrepreneurs and innovators, and will have measures to “enhance productivity” of a workforce the Bank of Canada said this week is lagging the U.S.
“We’re going to help young Canadians realize the promise of Canada with a responsible economic plan that reduces our debt-to-GDP ratio and grows the economy so we can ensure today’s strong social safety net is affordable and is strong for future generations,” Freeland said.
Poilievre didn’t comment directly on the Trudeau-Freeland event, but on Wednesday, not long after their comments, he posted on “X” a Bloomberg feature that painted a bleak portrait of a fraying social safety net in Canada, saying it is how the world sees the country “after eight years of Trudeau.”
Let the framing begin.