Offence on slippery slope to bottom
Changes since infamous wild-card loss have contributed to collapse of once intimidating lineup
It seems so long ago now, but only a few years have passed since the Blue Jays possessed Major League Baseball’s most powerful lineup.
In 2021, the Jays hit more home runs than anyone. They finished with 262 to set a franchise record and easily surpass the second-place Giants at 241.
That team featured seven players who went deep at least 20 times. There might have been an eighth if Danny Jansen didn’t miss time with an injury, finishing with 11 across 70 games.
The homer-driven lineup ranked third with 846 runs and first with a .796 on-base plus slugging percentage. With a young core of position players, it was supposed to be just the start of what would become an offensive juggernaut. Instead, it became the peak.
The regression began — only slightly — in 2022 when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. failed to replicate his 2021 MVP-calibre performance. Marcus Semien was replaced by Matt Chapman and Randal Grichuk was traded to the Rockies. The Jays fell to seventh with 200 homers, but they finished third with 775 runs.
Then came the turning point. The Jays were humiliated by the Mariners in a wild-card series, which included a blown 7-1 lead in Game 2. Blame was placed on club’s shortcomings in run prevention and the front office responded by overreacting and trying to change the team’s identity.
Teoscar Hernández, who went 2for-3 in his return with the Dodgers on Friday, was traded to the Mariners for Erik Swanson. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was included alongside Gabriel Moreno in a deal for Daulton Varsho. Defensive specialist — and light-hitting — Kevin Kiermaier was brought in to man centre field.
The changes contributed to the Jays becoming one of the top pitching and defensive teams in the league. They also played a role in the collapse of a once intimidating lineup.
In 2023, the Jays dropped to 14th with 746 runs and 16th with 188 homers.
Through the first month of 2024, the numbers have been even worse.
They entered Friday averaging 3.69 runs, which ranked 25th. Their 0.85 homers per game were 23rd and Varsho was the only player on pace to hit more than 20.
The reasons behind the lack of offence extend beyond the front office. To date, the 2021 season has proven to be the outlier, not the norm, for Guerrero. Alejandro Kirk once offered a plus bat and it has since turned into a liability. George Springer hasn’t been the same guy since the start of 2023.
However, there’s also a long list of things the execs are responsible for. Signing Kiermaier not once, but twice, never made sense. Neither did committing $15 million (U.S.) to Isiah Kiner-Falefa to become a defensive specialist at third. Trading Hernandez and his streak of four consecutive years — abbreviated COVID-19 season excluded — with 25-plus homers for a reliever was equally unwise.
The Jays offence isn’t going to perform this poorly all year. At some point Guerrero and Bo Bichette will heat up, but even when they do, this lineup isn’t remotely close to what it used to be and that’s going to be an issue all year.
Set up to fail
The Jays spend a lot of time talking about putting their players in the best position to succeed. Well, they certainly didn’t do that Wednesday when they called up prospect Addison Barger to become their starting left fielder, a position he had never played.
The 24-year-old has elite athleticism and with enough reps he should easily handle left. That’s not the issue, but if Barger was the Jays’ first line of defence for an injured outfielder, why didn’t it occur to someone to play him in left before
Wednesday?
Barger appeared in 19 games at Triple-A Buffalo. He wasn’t in left for any of them. Putting him in right, where he has played before, and temporarily putting Springer in centre would have made for a less stressful debut.
Vanishing Vogelbach
While on the topic of illogical decisions, is there anyone who understands Daniel Vogelbach’s role? Entering Friday, Vogelbach started four games and pinch hit in five others. He has gone more than a week without playing at all.
On Wednesday, he was permitted to hit for himself with a pair of runners on base despite a career .491 OPS against lefties.
The night before he wasn’t used as a pinch-hitter for Kiner-Falefa in a close game vs a righty, his specialty.
If this is the job that Joey Votto is rehabbing an ankle injury to audition for it makes you wonder, what’s the point?
Quick hitters
Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann avoided Tommy John surgery and has been temporarily shut down to deal with inflammation. That’s a huge break for the lefty who has never thrown more than 79 innings in a season and needs the work ... Kirk’s fall from grace has been stunning. In 2022, he was in the 82nd percentile for Statcast’s batting run value. These days he’s down to sixth ... Where would the Jays be without their rotation? Prior to Friday’s clunker by Chris Bassitt, Jays starters led the AL with a 2.25 ERA since April 8.