The ones who got away
Jays struck out in off-season, but now we know options were hit and miss
The Blue Jays’ disappointing start to the regular season comes on the heels of an even more depressing winter that saw the front office fail to upgrade a roster that had yet to enjoy any success in the playoffs.
An off-season that began with hopes of signing Shohei Ohtani or trading for Juan Soto didn’t result in much of anything. The lack of noticeable improvement loomed large in a 16-19 start that saw the Jays relegated to last place in the American League East as they arrived in Philadelphia for the start of a two-game series on Tuesday.
It’s easy to criticize the approach taken by general manager Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office. It’s a bit harder to identify logical moves that would have helped the Jays take the next step.
So instead of just complaining (which we’ve been doing a lot lately in this space) it makes sense to go back and examine what moves the Jays had at their disposal during the off-season that might have made a difference.
This is a breakdown of the options at three positions where the Jays spent most of their time shopping, with stats entering Tuesday:
Third base
There weren’t too many fans clamouring for the return of Matt Chapman and it’s easy to see why. The former all-star was coming off a terrible final season with the Jays, and hasn’t been any better with his new team in San Francisco. In 36 games for the Giants, Chapman is batting .209 with four home runs while striking out an alarming 41 times in 139 at-bats. Even worse, the platinum glove winner has already committed six errors.
Fellow free-agent Jeimer Candelario, who signed a three-year deal worth $45 million (U.S.) with the Cincinnati Reds, hasn’t been any better. He’s batting .190 with three home runs and a .634 on-base plus slugging percentage across 28 games, well below average. Swing and miss has been an issue there, too. The 30-year-old has struck out in 37 per cent of his at-bats.
An off-season argument was made that the Jays should have saved the $15 million spent on two years of Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.658 OPS) and added someone more affordable. Amed Rosario (.308, two homers, .759 OPS) signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and the currently injured Gio Urshela (.298 with a .644 OPS) went to the Minnesota Twins, both on $1.5-million deals. The best bargain might be Washington’s Nick Senzel, who was guaranteed $2 million and is off to a hot start with five homers and an .835 OPS.
The outfield
With Daulton Varsho under club control through 2026, the Jays had the option of upgrading in left field or centre field. In the end, they brought back veteran Kevin Kier- maier (.525 OPS) on another one- year deal.
The most high-profile candidate was Cody Bellinger, who settled for a one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs worth $30 million plus a pair of player options. Bellinger is now on the injured list, but prior to going down in late April he was off to a decent start with five home runs and a .760 OPS in 22 games.
The biggest miss for the Jays might have been not trying harder to reunite with Teoscar Hernández. The 31-year-old slugger settled for a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers at $23.5 million and is tied for fifth in the majors with nine home runs. Nobody on the Jays had more than six through Monday.
A more affordable option would have been Tommy Pham, who recently signed for just $3 million plus incentives. He’s off to a decent start with a pair of home runs in just 10 games for the Chicago White Sox.
Designated hitter
One area where the Jays should feel content is DH, where Justin Turner has proven to be a beneficial addition. His pace has slowed following a blistering start, but he still entered Tuesday’s series opener batting a respectable .283 with four home runs and 16 RBIs.
That’s better production than the Mets have been getting out of J.D. Martinez (.667 OPS), who didn’t make his debut until late April. It’s also a lot more impressive than what Jorge Soler has been doing for the Giants. Soler, who was frequently linked to the Jays, signed a three-year deal worth $42 million and is batting just .202 with a .655 OPS in 34 games. Turner has also outperformed Rhys Hoskins, who is batting .219 with six home runs after signing with the Milwaukee Brewers for $16 million.
The argument made in this space during the off-season was that the Jays should have sacrificed defence for offence. If they had considered that, perhaps they would have found room in left for Joc Pederson, who is off to a nice start with the Diamondbacks. Pederson is batting .297 with three homers and a .933 OPS that would lead the Jays, but it’s worth noting he has yet to play the field in 2024.