McNeil adds fuel to election speculation

Premier Stephen McNeil added a bit of fuel to the speculation that Nova Scotians will be going to the polls later this year, when he talked to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce last week.

Before the premier took the stage, a video of his government’s recent hits warmed up the crowd. It was front-end loaded with feel-good deeds for the environment and health care, a couple of areas where the government is vulnerable and needs to pad its resume before applying for a third term.

The annual “state of the province” check-in with Halifax business folk took the question-and-answer format where McNeil shines, provided it’s in a non-partisan setting, so outside of the legislature.

The premier also assumed the role of promoter-in-chief which is effective when he talks about what’s been accomplished and what’s possible when Nova Scotians pull together.

McNeil previewed the upcoming budget and announced corporate and small business tax cuts that drew a predictable and favourable response from the corporate and business crowd. And, in the next breath, he told the businesspeople he expects them to invest those tax savings back in the province, especially by hiring young people.

While the economy and creating economic opportunities frequently form the core of McNeil’s message, it was broad and inclusive this week, as he urged businesses to make their workplaces more diverse by adding black, Indigenous and immigrant employees.

Nova Scotia’s Liberal premier was more liberal than usual when he acknowledged that, in a growing economy, there are Nova Scotians left behind and he promised the budget will address the province’s stubbornly high rates of child and family poverty.

Earlier this year, the government surprised many, including the retail and hospitality sector, when it announced the minimum wage would increase by a dollar an hour, to $12.55 on April 1. Those businesses had been anticipating an increase of about 55 cents.

The higher than expected minimum wage hike, and whatever measures the budget holds to combat poverty, answer another of the government’s political vulnerabilities.

Nova Scotia is the only province where child poverty has increased since the Canada Child Benefit was introduced four years ago. That’s not a distinction the government wants to carry into an election campaign without concrete answers about what it’s doing to fix it.

Nova Scotians last went to the polls May 30, 2017, so the government enters the fourth year of its second mandate this spring. Majority governments in Nova Scotia – McNeil’s government holds a two-seat majority – that go to the polls before reaching their fourth anniversary are much more successful than governments that wait longer.

In fact, every Nova Scotian government in the past 50 years that pushed past the four-year mark was either defeated or reduced to a minority.

So, with that history as a guide and if the polls are favourable, the McNeil Liberals are likely to call an election this fall, rather than wait and risk the unknowns that come with time, as well as a brush with their fourth anniversary next May.

A couple of byelections coming on March 10, in seats that were held by the NDP – Truro-Bible HillMillbrook-Salmon River and Cape Breton Centre – will serve as a bit of a barometer. Strong showings by Liberals there will be more evidence that the government is recovering from its low point in popularity recorded last spring.

There is one problem with a fall election, and it’s a problem of the government’s making.

Elections Nova Scotia submitted a budget last year that included funding for election readiness, and while that budget was approved by a legislative committee – Elections Nova Scotia reports to the legislature, not the government – the government removed that funding from the 2019-20 budget.

As a result, Chief Electoral Officer Richard Temporale pushed the election readiness date from April 1, 2020 to April 1, 2021.

Elections Nova Scotia will make an election happen when it’s called, but because the government pulled its required funding last year, the level of service and accessibility that Nova Scotians are accustomed to in their elections may be compromised if the election comes before April 1, 2021.

The addition of four new seats to the legislature – it’s increasing from the current 51 to 55 - further complicates election preparations.

So, while lots of signs point to a fall election, if the government decides to go to the polls there may be a few hiccups in Nova Scotia’s normally smooth-running electoral machinery.