We must all do our part

Every statement from public health officials and political leaders — who wisely take their lead from the public health experts — contains the same phrase.

“We have to flatten the curve,” they tell us. It’s the singular goal of the individual and collective action people are urged to take to slow the spread of the coronavirus. It’s why we’re self-isolating, no longer gathering in large groups, and practising a new, unfamiliar interpersonal construct called social distancing.

It’s a simple concept. A steep curve indicates a rapid increase in the number of cases, which brings a corresponding increase in complicated cases requiring medical intervention. In those circumstances, the health system can be overwhelmed, unable to cope with the volume of new and critical cases and — the worst case — people who need medical attention can’t get it from a system that’s crushed under the weight of too many sick people all at once.

That’s the nightmare scenario we’re trying to avoid, and success requires that everyone does their part.

A flattened curve may not reduce the total number of infections, but it spreads those infections over a longer time span. It means less immediate pressure on the health system because fewer people are seriously ill at the same time.

If we pull it off, the health system will be there for those who need it, and COVID-19 will claim far fewer victims than it would than a steep incline in the curve.

Charles Bergquist, who directs the radio show Science Friday on Public Radio International, came up with a good metaphor.

“Your workplace bathroom has only so many stalls,” Bergquist tweeted. “If everyone decides to go at the same time, there are problems. If the same number of people need go to the restroom but spread over several hours, it’s all OK.”

As much as Canadians, and Atlantic Canadians, bemoan problems in the health-care system, we’ve always been confident that when we need it, it will be there. To get through this thing with the least possible tragedy, we need to help the health system so it can be there for those who will need it, when they need it.

As health consultant Mary Jane Hampton pointed out in a recent interview, we need to take a lesson from the run on toilet paper, and not replicate that irrational fear in our health system. Generally, that means steering clear of the system unless you develop symptoms, and if you do develop symptoms — and only if you develop symptoms — call 811 for instructions on how to get tested.

Shelburne:

Atlantic Canadians have an advantage in this fight. It’s in the nature of the place.

People down here look out for one another. We saw it when Newfoundland was buried under an avalanche of snow in January. We see it whenever a disaster or a crisis strikes one of our communities. People step up and do what they can to help.

It’s hard-wired into Atlantic Canadians.

In some of our communities, “caremongering” has become a thing. Social media groups have sprung to life for the sole purpose of connecting people who need help — getting groceries, prescriptions filled or other errands — with those who can bring it.

Self-isolation, social distancing, limiting gatherings to small groups, washing our hands, these are all things we can do to avoid getting sick. But equally important, these are things we need to do so that the spread of the virus slows to a rate that allows our medical professionals to treat people who are acutely sick.

It’s unfortunate and probably a little unfair to keep pointing to Italy as an example of what can happen, but it serves as a cautionary tale. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 doubled from 10,000 to 20,000 in just four days, between March 11 and March 15, in Italy. The curve spiked.

Demand on some of that nation’s hospitals, particularly in the hard-hit north, far exceeded their capacity to respond. Emergency rooms had to turn away patients. Among those who became acutely ill, the death rate rose to roughly seven per cent, or nearly double the global average.

Flatten the curve, public health officials say with increasing urgency. It’s what we need to do so that health professionals can do what they do.

In a very real sense, it’s up to us.

As Mary Jane Hampton said: “We can either sink the health-care system or we can keep it afloat.”