Bank of Canada warns of ‘consequences’ if Trump protectionist policies materialize
The Bank of Canada is warning there will be “material consequences” for trade if protectionist policies under U.S. president-elect Donald Trump come to fruition.
The central bank released its latest monetary policy report on Wednesday, offering its first updated forecasts and broad economic assessment since the November election victory by Trump, who will be sworn in Friday. It also held its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 per cent, as expected.
The quarterly document was released amid bleak warnings from experts about the potential fallout for Canada from Trump’s promised policies. Leaders around the world have been scrambling to gauge what shape Trump’s changes could take as well as when – and if – they will be implemented.
On one hand, the bank offered an optimistic outlook by largely sticking with its growth expectations from October, before the U.S. presidential election. The bank predicted Canada’s real gross domestic product to grow by 2.1 per cent this year – up from its two per cent forecast in October – and again by 2.1 per cent in 2018.
But when it comes to Trump, the bank cautioned that its outlook only factors in the possible effects of an expected U.S. fiscal boost. It said the anticipated fiscal expansion in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, would help the economy through increased foreign demand.
The bank also incorporated Trump’s vow to cut corporate taxes – something it said would threaten Canadian competitiveness.
It said it did not account for the full range of Trump’s promised policy changes.
Under this cloud of uncertainty, federal officials have been trying to develop a good relationship with members of Trump’s inner circle and build a case to shield the Canadian economy from policy changes.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said that senior government officials have had “constructive and positive discussions” with Trump’s team.