Four years after Lac-Megantic, model sought to reduce risk

The dangers of transporting hazardous goods by train were highlighted in tragic fashion four years ago, when an oilladen runaway train derailed and crashed in the centre of Lac-Megantic, Que., killing 47 people.

But as the town rebuilds and rebrands itself as an ecofriendly hub, some engineers at Montreal’s Concordia University are working to develop a math model they hope could help prevent similar rail disasters.

The project, which is led by PhD student Omar Abuobidalla, aims to develop a model that would consider various risk factors involved in a given train journey, thus allowing rail operators to make the best decision on what route to use, according to one of the project’s supervisors.

“It may be (that) through investigation we locate very dangerous locations or track segments, and give that a much higher weight in the modelling,” said Mingyuan Chen, a professor in Concordia’s department of mechanical and industrial engineering.

The solution from the mathematical model would then help avoid those locations, he added.

As an example, the finished version of the model could include risk factors such as an area’s population, the type of material being transported, and even the slope of the track - some of which may have contributed to the Lac-Megantic disaster.

If the dangers are deemed to be high, the model could suggest an alternate route if one is feasible, or possibly issue a recommendation such as reducing speed, Chen says.

As of yet, the team – comprised of two supervisors as well as Abuobidalla and a master’s student – is still working on developing the mathematical equations to calculate risk as accurately as possible without making the final product prohibitively complicated to use.

Some results should be available in a year, but the final result of the study, which is partly funded by CN Rail, is still two years or more away.

Chen says it would be “too forward” to suggest his team’s work could prevent another Lac-Megantic, given the many factors involved in a rail accident.

He also pointed out that other solutions are being proposed by researchers, government and rail companies.