Weather wise
A warm fall that will be a bit on the muggy side is expected for Nova Scotia
The forecast from The Weather Network is in.
Dark tonight, brighter in the morning.
The weather prognosticator’s fall forecast is not quite that predictable, but almost.
“The summer is going to be a pretty good indication of how your fall is going to go,” Michael Carter, a network meteorologist said of what’s in store for Haligonians and Nova Scotians for the months of September, October and November.
“The biggest factor that has influenced the weather in Atlantic Canada this year has been the warm temperatures. We really expect that warm pattern to continue through most of the fall. What it is going to mean for you guys for fall weather is probably some above normal temperatures, but, along with that, probably some above normal humidity as well. When we have a lot of warm water, there’s a lot of moisture in the air.”
All that moisture can bring above normal precipitation, too, Carter said.
“A warm fall on the whole but maybe just a bit on the muggy side.”
Carter said the average daytime high temperature for the month of September in Halifax over the past 30 years is a warm 19.4 degrees.
“Certainly in the early part of fall, we can expect some summerlike days. As we get into October, your daytime high slips a little bit and is down to about 13.1. By the time we get to November, you’re back down to single digits wtih an average daytime high down to 7.3 in Halifax.”
Those 30-year averages will likely be surpassed this fall.
“In a warmer than normal season as we are expecting this year, you might expect to beat those numbers more often than not. Even in an overall warm pattern, you are certainly not going to expect any 20-degree days by the time we are getting to the end of the fall season.”
Warm falls can lead to tropical storms, like hurricane Juan that plowed through the province in late September of 2003.
“Because the Atlantic is so warm this year, obviously in the fall we are still in the active hurricane season. The hurricane season peaks on Sept. 10 but we have the entire second half of the season still in front of us. Atlantic Canada is no stranger to tropical moisture. The hurricanes tend to become post-tropical but they can still bring strong impacts to Atlantic Canada so that is something we are watching for. We are in such an active season already.”
Carter said the fall trend across the country is near and abovenormal temperatures.
“There are not really any persistent cold patterns setting up anywhere across the country this fall.”
The fall and the spring are seasons of transition, seasons of change, Carter said, but he wasn’t offering concrete advise on when Nova Scotians should change their tires to get ready for winter.
“That’s going to vary year to year and person to person,” he said. “By the time we get later in the fall, we could see our first signs of some wintry weather creeping in and some mixed precipitation, maybe even snow flurries, as we do every year. Of course, down on the coast, you guys will usually fare a little better. The first winter precip is usually a little delayed for Halifax compared with some other spots in interior Nova Scotia and interior New Brunswick, the folks who don’t benefit quite as much from the marine influence.”
By the time November rolls around, Carter said there is no way to avoid the classic fall storms.
“The windy, wet fall storms that we tend to get at the end of the fall can bring us some snow along with the rain.”
Nova Scotia drivers are accustomed to November snows and homeowners fortifying for winter can relate to fall frosts.
“We’ll start to see the first freeze of the year in the next couple of months. That’s part of fall but I think some folks look forward to that, the cooler weather after a long summer. Some folks enjoy the chance to get out and enjoy the crisp air in the morning.”
Crisp air gives way to winter. The traditional signs of harsh winters like a proliferation of cones found on evergreen trees are visible already in many parts of the province.
“Nature has a way of predicting these things. As a part of this fall forecast, we do have a preview of winter temperatures. The overall temperature pattern as we see it across the country right now is that it is going to be roughly similar to what we saw last winter. What that probably means for us is that the core of the coldest air this winter we’re expecting to be across central Canada, we’re talking about southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba and western Ontario. For Atlantic Canada, we’re probably going to see temperatures pretty much near normal this winter.”
There will be cold spells and some classic winter storms but “no real excessive cold” in Atlantic Canada.
“At least as we see things right now.”