Trump’s NAFTA fire and fury fizzles

While critics will rail against what was in Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech last week, Canadians can shout hooray for what wasn’t.

There wasn’t a sentence, phrase or even whisper about tearing up NAFTA.

To be sure, wedged in between his ramblings about “massive tax cuts,” more nuclear weapons and a wall along the Mexican border, there was the predictable, boilerplate rant against “unfair trade deals.”

“We will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones,” Trump declared.

But that was all. There were no specifics.

There was no mention of Canada.

Despite all his empty, pompous rhetoric, the words “North American Free Trade Agreement” never crossed his lips.

That Trump beat his protectionist drum then glossed over the subject reflected neither a speechwriter’s slip nor the scattered memory of an erratic president.

Instead, Canadians should see this as evidence their federal government’s campaign to defend free trade is winning over America’s political power brokers.

Thanks in large part to the efforts of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet ministers, American politicians are increasingly pushing back against the president’s threat to rip up NAFTA if he can’t get his way.

Just hours before Trump’s speech, members of his own party in the Senate released a letter voicing solid support for NAFTA.

The letter, signed by 36 members of the Senate’s 51-seat Republican contingent, called on Trump to remain in the trade agreement, reminding him, “NAFTA supports 14 million jobs, representing thousands of jobs in each of the 50 states.”

That’s a powerful message for a president who needs Republican backing if he hopes to implement other parts of his agenda.

Another sign the Trump administration is presenting a more flexible, accommodating front to trade with its neighbours came on Monday in Montreal, when the sixth round of talks on renegotiating NAFTA ended.

While the U.S. rejected Canadian compromises on the issues of auto-content requirements and resolving trade disputes, it signalled it’s willing to keep talking and anticipates a revised trade pact can be signed with Canada and Mexico.

Considering the high stakes of this game and that all the negotiators are keeping their cards close to their chests, this represents progress. Canada’s nuanced approach is working.

It can be charming and diplomatic, as when Canadian politicians visit their American peers to extol the benefits of NAFTA and progressive trade.

It can be tough, such as when Canada filed a complaint against American trade laws at the World Trade Organization last month.

And it can show a willingness to give, as the Canadian team did in Montreal last week.

This is what the long game looks like and Trudeau is right to play it.

It’s the best strategy for keeping the NAFTA talks going past the tentative March deadline and until after November’s mid-term American elections.

The more time that passes, the more Americans learn to appreciate NAFTA and the more leverage the Democrats gain in Congress, the better the chances of a new deal will be.