Mexico: 80 per cent chance of new NAFTA deal announced within a month
There’s an 80 per cent chance of a new NAFTA agreement in principle within a month, the Mexican minister leading the file said Monday.
Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo told the Mexican network Televisa that he believes a deal is probable soon.
“I would tell you there is a high probability of 80 per cent,” he said.
“It will depend a lot on flexibility.”
He says it won’t happen within days, nor – as some had hoped – by the end of this week in time for Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau, and Enrique Pena Nieto to make the announcement at the Summit of the Americas in Peru.
But Guajardo says negotiators from all three countries are now speaking constantly. He says officials are still negotiating technical details in Washington, after their political bosses, Chrystia Freeland, Guajardo, and Robert Lighthizer held talks last week.
“It’s a permanent round,” Guajardo said, describing the non-stop negotiations.
He said it will become clear by the first week of May whether an agreement in principle is possible this spring, after which point the talks could languish until 2019, while Mexico elects a new president and the U.S. elects a new Congress.
Guajardo warns that nothing is guaranteed in this political environment. In an oblique reference to Trump and his social- media habits, Guajardo says policy-makers sometimes find themselves scrambling to respond to the thoughts of a superior shared publicly at 6 a.m. Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland leaves the stage with United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, right, and Mexico’s Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarrea after delivering statements to the media during the sixth round of negotiations for a new North American Free Trade Agreement in Montreal.
He says the U.S. had already tariffs in retaliation for Trump shown some flexibility on the trade actions over steel, alumissue that is the focus of current inum and China. negotiations: autos. He confirmed A Republican senator told that the U.S. had been willing to NBC’S “Meet The Press” over the drop its demand that 50 per cent weekend that he understands the of every car consist of American U.S. should target Chinese trade parts, in exchange for a new syspractices like the theft of inteltem that credits parts-makers lectual property; but he says he when they pay more than $15 an wants to see a coherent strategy hour. and says such a strategy should
The policy could punish Mexmean solidifying other trade relaico. As Guajardo noted, that $15 tionships. figure is several times the current “Number 1, let’s quit fighting wage of workers there: “In Mexico with Mexico and Canada,” said – we clearly don’t have that.” Sen. Mike Rounds.
“The devil is in the details,” he “They are our allies. We’ve added. actually got a pretty good
The countries have been disrelationship right now with cussing technical details such as NAFTA. So, (let’s not be) going the phase-in period for the policy after NAFTA and starting over to take effect and other variables there.” of the new formula.
If achieved, an agreement in principle would start a longer process. In the U.S., that means months of consultations before the Congress can vote on ratification.
Once all three countries ratify it, the new trade pact would take effect.
Some Americans are in a hurry. In particular, agriculture states, already battered by low crop prices and poor weather, are antsy about getting slammed by
“Number 1, let’s quit fighting with Mexico and Canada.”
U.S. Senator Mike Rounds