No victory for the West as U.S. leaves Afghanistan

The long and pointless Afghan war may finally be coming to an end. If so, this will be a relief for the U. S. and its coalition allies operating there. It certainly won’t be a victory.

The broad strokes of a deal in principle between the United States and Taliban insurgents were released last week. They are not likely to bring much solace to the families of soldiers – including Canadians – who fought and died in the 17-year-old conflict.

There is no mention of ensuring that girls can go to school, which at one point was given by Canada’s government as the rationale for this war.

There is no mention of defeating the “scumbags” as Canada’s then-top general, Rick Hillier, described the Taliban. Indeed, it seems likely that the Taliban will be guaranteed a major political role in the country.

There is no mention of bringing democracy and development to Afghanistan – another of the Canadian government’s ostensible reasons for the war.

The essence of the deal, as described to the New York Times by chief U. S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad, is simple and familiar.

The Taliban will ensure that terrorists don’t use Afghanistan as a base to attack the West. The Americans, along with the 38 allied nations still operating there, will withdraw their troops.

Ironically, the agreement in principle bears a marked resemblance to the offer that Afghanistan’s then-taliban government made to the U. S. in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Don’t invade, the Taliban said then. And in return we will expel terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden to a third country.

Washington scornfully dismissed the offer. Bolstered by NATO allies like Canada and using the flimsy excuse of selfdefence to win United Nations approval, it invaded Afghanistan instead.

But nothing worked out. Bin Laden did escape to a third country – Pakistan – where he remained until American commandos assassinated him in 2011.

The Taliban retreated to the hills and kept on fighting, serene in their belief that the West would tire of this war long before they did.

They were right. Canada wisely pulled its troops out in 2014. Over 13 years, 159 Canadian soldiers had been killed and hundreds more wounded. Public support had evaporated.

Other members of the NATOled coalition stayed on. But most got out of the business of fighting and focused instead on training Afghan troops.

The U. S. still has roughly 14,000 soldiers in Afghanistan – some involved in training and support, some in counterterrorism. Much can happen to derail the peace talks. The U. S. insists that the Taliban agree to a ceasefire and enter into talks with the current Afghan government. Up to now, the insurgents have resisted both ideas.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, whose administration was excluded from the negotiations, is understandably wary. The Taliban have not been kind to those it labels foreign puppets. Ghani himself raised the example of former Russian-backed president Najibullah, who was famously hanged from a lamppost by Taliban forces after they captured Kabul in 1996.

As well, the U. S. security establishment is loath to withdraw troops quickly for fear that other anti-american terrorists, such as Daesh, might take advantage of any power vacuum.

But U. S. President Donald Trump wants American soldiers to come home. According to the polls, so do most Americans. A Yougov public opinion survey taken in October indicates 61 per cent of Americans favour a U. S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Among serving soldiers and veterans, the number rises to 69 per cent.

The Americans have been along this road before. Their decision to involve themselves in Vietnam’s civil war was a grotesque mistake. In the end, after sustaining more than 200,000 pointless casualties they abandoned their erstwhile South Vietnamese allies and pulled out.

They are preparing to do the same in Afghanistan. The results are not likely to be pretty. Continued civil strife is a real possibility as various Afghan armed factions vie for power.

But for the West, this is a war that needs to end. It never should have been waged in the first place.