WE’RE PAYING ATTENTION, AND WE DON’T LIKE WHAT WE SEE
Poll looks at divide in U.S., and what Canada thinks of the election, writes Mario Canseco.
The U.S. presidential election has been on the minds of Canadians for a year and a half, and opinions are crystallizing.
In August 2015, when the notion of Donald Trump living in the White House elicited laughter, 62 per cent of Canadians interviewed by Insights West thought the real estate developer would be a “bad” president for Canada. Last month, the proportion rose to 80 per cent.
The numbers for Hillary Clinton are better, with 42 per cent of Canadians believing she would be “good” for Canada. Canadians traditionally have a soft spot for Democratic Party nominees, and even Conservative Party voters at the federal level are wondering whether Trump shares their views.
These numbers outline two of the take-aways this American campaign has provided to election observers north of the border. First, the astonishing level of engagement from Canadians — with 68 per cent saying they have seen, heard or read media stories related to the U.S. election — has made Trump and Clinton household names.
Second, Canadians’ affection for Barack Obama seen in surveys conducted in 2008 and 2012 is nowhere to be found in 2016. Canadians have an evident dislike of Trump, but the prospect of a Clinton victory, historic as it may be, is not particularly enticing.
When Insights West asked American voters about the most important issue facing the U.S., more than a quarter (27 per cent) pointed to financial concerns: economy, jobs and the federal budget deficit. Terrorism is second on the list of worries at 16 per cent, followed by leadership — an issue that creeps up in polling when there is dissatisfaction with politicians — at nine per cent. Health care, public safety, immigration, moral values and the environment are all in single digits.
The economy and terrorism have dominated this campaign, but the fact that the two presidential nominees head to the election with unfavourable ratings explains why leadership rounds out the top three.
For Americans who plan to cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton, economic concerns are the most important issue facing the U.S. (21 per cent) followed by terrorism (17 per cent). The surprise here is to see the environment (at 12 per cent) emerging as the third most important issue, ahead of health care and public safety (both at nine per cent).
When assessing the views of Donald Trump’s likely voters, the two solitudes are clearly defined. A third of them (33 per cent) view economic concerns as the key challenge facing the country, with terrorism in second place (18 per cent). Two issues are tied (at 11 per cent) as the third-ranked concerns for Trump voters: leadership, echoing the sense of dissatisfaction with the political class that enabled Trump to clinch the nomination in the Republican primaries; and immigration, a topic that has seen Trump connect with his base with promises of tighter border controls.
So, where does the environment rank for Trump voters? The answer is nowhere. Not a single one of the Americans who will vote for Trump interviewed by Insights West said the environment is the most important issue facing the United States.
Regardless of the result, Americans will wake up to a deeply divided country. For Canada, the road ahead with our largest trading partner will be thornier than in 2000. A president-elect Clinton will seek to create jobs and may revert to the protectionist attitudes that hampered free trade in the past. A presidentelect Trump will not be in any hurry to understand environmental issues, at a time when Canada is seriously considering a national carbon tax.