Demand for QBs outstrips supply at draft
No signal-callers rated as franchise players, but some could still get picked high anyway
Which teams will scoop up the best available quarterbacks? And when?
For months ahead the NFL draft, we’ve heard that although this year’s QB class probably is above average in overall talent, the number ready to play right away is zero. They’re promising, but probably too green to go early in Round 1 of the draft on Thursday.
Here’s where this gets fun. Three teams definitely need a better quarterback right away: the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets. Three others — the Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills — might find themselves in the same position before the 2017 season plays out, if they aren’t there already. Mike Glennon is a stopgap in Chicago, Blake Bortles seems to be fast bombing out in Jacksonville and the Bills’ own GM didn’t want Tyrod Taylor four months ago.
Three other teams wringing the last drops of usefulness from their longtime, long-tooth gunslingers — the Los Angeles Chargers with Phil Rivers, New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees and Arizona Cardinals with Carson Palmer — surely would love to draft an ace shot of the future.
The demand is there, even if the supply ought to be on layaway. But here’s the intrigue. Those nine clubs possess picks in the top half of the first round: the Browns No. 1 overall, the Niners No. 2, Bears No. 3, Jaguars No. 4, Jets No. 6, Chargers No. 7, Bills No. 10, Saints No. 11, Browns again at No. 12 and the Cardinals No. 13. Barring trades, all will submit a selection before the draft is two hours and 15 minutes old. You’ve got to think at least one will gulp hard and take a flyer on one of the potential phenoms of the future: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Patrick Mahomes II, Davis Webb or Nathan Peterman.
Maybe two or three teams will, or even more than that, as happened in the 2011 draft when four QBs were taken in the first 12 picks (Cam Newton No. 1, Jake Locker eight, Blaine Gabbert tenth and Christian Ponder at 12).
But should any team reach like that?
Emphatic arguments are being made against such over-drafting, such as this one last Friday from Mike Mayock, NFL Network’s lead draft analyst: “As far as the quarterbacks in this year’s class, I’m not banging the table for any of them. I think there’s talent in the class, but I think it’s going to take a year for most of these guys.”
As Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians pointed out last month, probably the worst thing about reaching in the draft is all the unwarranted pressure — and expectations of instant acumen — that get heaped onto the poor QB himself.
See E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills, 2013. The QB-bereft Bills took Manuel 16th overall when most clubs deemed him a Day 2 pick at best. Then Buffalo started its bigbuzz first-rounder from the getgo. Manuel struggled, and after an injury-interrupted rookie season, he was benched four games into his second season. The football world concluded he was a colossal first-round bust when Manuel just wasn’t ready to play, unsurprisingly laboured then got yanked by Doug Marrone’s frustrated, panicky coaching staff.
Manuel is far from the only top-five quarterback in recent years who flamed out fast. Since 2011, only 11 of the 30 passers selected among the top five QBs are still NFL starters. Two of those 11 — Glennon in Chicago and Bortles in Jacksonville — aren’t seen as long-term locks.
Conversely, we all know that with each passing year this century, a team’s chances for success rest ever more on the worthiness of its passer.
“You’re spinning your wheels if you don’t have a quarterback in this league,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said.
Right. No QB, no chance. Indeed, it’s maybe no longer a case of why would a team ever overreach for a potential saviour QB, but why not.