NHL LOTTERY A CRAP SHOOT
Odds don’t favour Canucks for No. 1
Trevor Linden has a suggestion for the Vancouver Canucks faithful in advance of Saturday’s National Hockey League draft lottery in Toronto: Head to a convenience store and purchase a lottery ticket.
Choose the random draw option or, if you’re into favourite numbers, include 12, 1, 2 and 4. The Canucks have a 12.124 chance — second to the Colorado Avalanche at 17.936 per cent — of winning the weighted system to select first at the draft in Chicago in June.
“That’s about as much preparation as you can do,” said Linden, the Canucks’ president of hockey operations, who hasn’t played the draft lottery simulator this year but “might have” a year ago when Auston Matthews was the coveted prize.
“It’s a helpless feeling, and it’s nerve-racking because you have no control.”
The lottery will be part of the Hockey Night in Canada broadcast and the suspense starts shortly after 4:30 p.m. Vancouver time.
However, before the card-flipping reveal of the draft order, there will be a curiosity about how 15 ping-pong balls for lottery-eligible teams in that drum actually pop up. We don’t see that play out on television — neither does Linden.
“I don’t and I can’t,” Linden said. “You’re sequestered. I’m not a big conspiracy theorist. What we saw last year (with Winnipeg moving from sixth to second with only the fifth-best odds of ascension) is going to be more normal. You have a better chance to move down than staying where you are and there’s nothing you can do about it. “Those are the rules.”
The Canucks slipped from third to fifth last year. And it might seem odd that the league’s second-worst team isn’t guaranteed higher odds of getting the first two picks, but with the expansion Vegas Golden Knights getting the third-best odds Saturday — and selecting third in each round of the draft — there’s a slow movement to make it tougher for bottom-feeders to gain top selections by tanking. In Vancouver, that thought became a social media staple. The Canucks dropped their final eight regularseason games and that was played as proof of The Tank. Of course, the Canucks lost 462 man-games to injury, were forced to use 39 players and tried to get a leg up on next season with auditions in the final month.
Run all that by Linden and he obviously bristles.
“It’s amazing,” he said. “Regardless of where they are (in the standings), players want to win. Coaches coach to win. I don’t know how you would, as a president or a general manager, do it any other way. Obviously, (tanking) is not as easy as people think it is or make it out to be. You could make goaltending or player decisions to influence the game I guess, but guys have integrity.
“They go out to win every night.” And speaking of winning, what would constitute a lottery win? There’s no Connor McDavid or Matthews to put any rebuild on fast-forward.
“There’s no win or loss. We’re going to get a good player and keep building,” Linden said. “A plug-and-play player is good, but maybe the player we pick at four or five becomes a better pro. And I do believe that.”
There is some truth to that. Centre Adam Gaudette was a 2015 fifth-round pick and had 26 goals in 37 games at Northeastern University this season. Defenceman Gustav Forsling was a 2014 fifthround pick and although traded to Chicago in the Adam Clendening swap, he appears to have an NHL future.
The only control the Canucks will have following the lottery is who they draft on June 23 because they can’t drop more than three spots Saturday. Their odds for the second through fifth picks are 11.8, 11.3, 34 and 30.7 per cent, respectively. And while selecting in the top five should ensure a legitimate NHL prospect, the top two picks are those highly coveted plug-andplay players.
A plug-and-play player is good, but maybe the player we pick at four or five becomes a better pro. And I do believe that.